Roma vs AC Milan: match statistics
The match promises to be extremely even, which argues for a draw. Roma presents impressive home form with a 70% win rate and only 0.5 goals conceded on average per game; however, AC Milan is unbeaten away this season (0% losses) and possesses a better scoring average (1.7 goals). A key factor is that Roma does not draw at home (0% draws), while AC Milan has a 40% draw rate away, suggesting a defensive approach from the visitors. Both teams are in excellent form over the last 5 matches (Roma 2.4 PPG, AC Milan 2.2 PPG) and have high clean sheet ratios (50% each). Given Roma's strength at home and AC Milan's solidity on the road, the most likely scenario is a balanced duel ending in a split of points.
Roma vs AC Milan: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Roma played AC Milan in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 25 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Roma: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. AC Milan: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Roma scores 1.24 and concedes 0.57 goals per match. AC Milan scores 1.62 and concedes 0.76. League average: 2.38 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Roma 24%, AC Milan 52%. Over 2.5: Roma 24%, AC Milan 48%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Roma has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.57. Roma: 13.7 shots per match, AC Milan: 14.1.
Match halves
Roma: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.67. AC Milan: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Roma: 61-75 (7 goals). AC Milan: 46-60 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.38 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match promises to be extremely even, which argues for a draw. Roma presents impressive home form with a 70% win rate and only 0.5 goals conceded on average per game; however, AC Milan is unbeaten away this season (0% losses) and possesses a better scoring average (1.7 goals). A key factor is that Roma does not draw at home (0% draws), while AC Milan has a 40% draw rate away, suggesting a defensive approach from the visitors. Both teams are in excellent form over the last 5 matches (Roma 2.4 PPG, AC Milan 2.2 PPG) and have high clean sheet ratios (50% each). Given Roma's strength at home and AC Milan's solidity on the road, the most likely scenario is a balanced duel ending in a split of points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Roma | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Roma is 9% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Roma · 2.2 pts / match - AC Milan
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AC Milan is 31% better for: goals scored per match.
1.24 goals / match - Roma · 1.62 goals / match - AC Milan
Roma is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.57 goals / match - Roma · 0.76 goals / match - AC Milan
Roma scores in 71% of matches (15 of 21 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 48% (10 of 21 matches).
AC Milan scores in 95% of matches (20 of 21 matches), while Roma keeps a clean sheet in 48% (10 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Roma
Over / Under - AC Milan
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Roma is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.62 pts / match - Roma · 1.48 pts / match - AC Milan
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Roma - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
AC Milan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 62%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Roma
AC Milan
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Roma | Liga | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.81 | 2.38 | • 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 24% | 45% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 24% | 44% | ▲ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 48% | 32% | ▲ 48% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 64% | ▼ 57% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 76% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Roma 0 - 0 - 1 AC Milan. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Roma vs AC Milan?
The Serie A match finished Roma 1:1 AC Milan. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Roma vs AC Milan?
Roma score 1.24 goals per game on average and AC Milan 1.62. The Serie A average is 2.38 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 24% of Roma's matches and 52% of AC Milan's.
What form are Roma and AC Milan in?
Over the last 5 games Roma have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and AC Milan 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Roma vs AC Milan?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Roma vs AC Milan: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.