Roma vs Fiorentina: match statistics

Roma is the clear favorite in this match: they sit 6th in the table while Fiorentina are 15th, and the home side have scored 48 goals this season versus 38 for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Roma have scored 9 goals and average 2.0 points per game, while Fiorentina have 4 goals and average 1.6 points per game. At home Roma create significantly more chances — averaging 15.35 shots and 5.0 shots on target per game with xG 1.75, whereas Fiorentina away average 10.41 shots and 2.82 shots on target with xG 1.09 (conversion 10% vs 10%). Defensively the hosts are better: Roma concede 0.59 goals per game at home and keep 53% clean sheets, while Fiorentina concede 1.47 goals away and have only 18% clean sheets, and fail to score in 35% of away matches. Considering the advantage in xG (1.75 vs 1.09), shots (15.35 vs 10.41) and solid home defense (0.59 conceded vs 1.47), I predict a Roma win and estimate probabilities: Home 66%, Draw 20%, Away 14%.

Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Roma 65% and Fiorentina 59%, clearly above the league average of 45%, so seasonal trends favor Goal/Goal. Additionally, Roma kept a clean sheet in only 29% of matches and Fiorentina in 18%, meaning Roma concedes in 71% of games and Fiorentina in 82% — this increases the likelihood that both teams will score. In terms of chance quality, Roma has home xG 1.66 equal to Fiorentina's away xG 1.66, while Fiorentina's xG_for 1.09 versus Roma's defense xG_against 1.22 suggests Roma should create and convert chances, and Fiorentina has a realistic xG ~1.1 to threaten as well. Shot stats show Roma's advantage (avg 16.12 shots and 4.29 shots on target) over Fiorentina (10.41 and 2.82), but Fiorentina's higher conversion 10% versus Roma's 7% indicates the visitors can be efficient and score. Considering seasonal BTTS 65%/59%, low clean sheet percentages 29%/18%, matching xG 1.66 vs 1.66 and the last 5 matches (Roma 9 scored and 6 conceded, Fiorentina 4 and 5), I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70%.

I recommend Over 1.5 as the primary pick. I expect 1.66 goals from Roma and 1.16 goals from Fiorentina (total 2.82), calculated as average xG: for Roma used xG attack 1.66 and xG conceded by Fiorentina 1.66; for Fiorentina used xG attack 1.09 and xG conceded by Roma 1.22. This season Roma had 65% of matches over 1.5 goals, Fiorentina 76%, and both teams register 88% of matches with at least 0.5 goals; in the last 5 matches Roma averaged 1.8 goals, Fiorentina 0.8, confirming the home side’s offensive edge. Roma averages 4.29 shots on target per match versus Fiorentina’s 2.82 and has 65% of matches with both teams scoring compared to Fiorentina’s 59%, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. A Poisson model on the total mean of 2.82 goals yields about a 77% probability for Over 1.5, about 54% for Over 2.5 and ~31% for Over 3.5, hence the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

The strongest signal is a half-time draw with Roma winning the match (X/1), because Fiorentina drew at half-time in 53% of their away matches and kept a clean sheet at the break in 71% of away games, which increases the likelihood of a draw at half-time. Roma, however, generates significantly more quality chances: the home xG is 1.66 versus Fiorentina’s 1.09, they average 16.12 shots (vs 10.41) and 4.29 on target (vs 2.82), so they should dominate after the break. This is confirmed by second-half statistics – Roma averages 1.65 points in second halves (28 points) versus Fiorentina’s 0.76 points (13 points), and Fiorentina concedes an average of 1.12 goals after half-time compared to 0.53 conceded by Roma, giving the hosts the edge for a turnaround. Due to Fiorentina’s higher shot conversion (10% vs Roma’s 7%) a full-time draw is possible, so I also assign a relatively high 16% to X/X and 8% to X/2, but the strongest data-driven signal is X/1.