Roma vs Pisa: match statistics

Roma holds a clear home advantage: 67% home wins, averaging 1.53 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per match, while Pisa have failed to win away (0 wins), scoring 1.07 and conceding 2.4 on average on the road. Differences in chance quality confirm this via xG and offensive activity: Roma record an average xG of 1.77 at home and 4.87 shots on target per match, whereas Pisa have xG 1.02 and 2.47 shots on target away. In the last 5 matches Roma scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) and hold a 1-1-3 record, while Pisa scored only 3 goals (0.6 per match) and also have 1 win in their last 5; both teams conceded 12 goals in those five fixtures, indicating a period of defensive instability. Additionally, the hosts have 53% of home games with a clean sheet and FTS 20%, versus 7% clean sheets and FTS 40% for the visitors, so Roma more often finish matches without conceding, while Pisa frequently fail to score away. Based on this I tip a Roma win, with an estimated probability distribution of 70% home win, 20% draw and 10% away win.

I project BTTS (both teams to score) as more likely — 70% vs 30%. Pisa concedes an average of 2.4 goals away and has a seasonal away BTTS rate of 60%, indicating that 60% of their away matches have seen goals from both sides. Roma at home generates xG 1.15 and in the last 5 matches averaged 1.6 goals (8 goals in 5 matches), although the seasonal home goals average is only 0.44 and shot conversion is 4%, meaning they create chances but finish poorly. Both teams conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches, and Pisa scored only 3 goals in that period, which suggests many goalmouth situations and a high likelihood of goals from both sides. Although Roma’s seasonal home BTTS percentage is only 25%, strong form signals (Roma 80% BTTS in last 5) and Pisa’s defensive vulnerability (55 goals conceded this season and 2.4 away) favor a 'Yes' selection.

The historical average for the 1.5 line is (44% for Roma + 80% for Pisa)/2 = 62%, and the projected xG 1.54 (Roma) + 1.21 (Pisa) = 2.75 significantly exceeds 1.5, therefore I assign Over 1.5 a 72% probability. I calculated expected goals as the average of offensive xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: Roma 1.15 xG_for vs Pisa 1.92 xG_against → 1.54 goals; Pisa 1.02 xG_for vs Roma 1.39 xG_against → 1.21 goals; total 2.75. Pisa has 67% of matches with over 2.5 goals and 93% of matches with at least 0.5 goals, plus a shot conversion rate of 11%, which increases the likelihood of goals; Roma has only 25% of matches >2.5 but 81% of matches with ≥0.5 goals, so I rate Over 2.5 moderately at 58%. Over 3.5 is unlikely (22%), because the expected 2.75 goals is below 3.5 and only Pisa has a high share of matches >3.5 (67%) versus Roma (13%).

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: the home side were level at the break in 69% of matches, while the away side were level in 40%; homes led at the break in only 6% of games, and aways in 13% (drawingAtHTPercentage_home=69, drawingAtHTPercentage_away=40, leadingAtHTPercentage_home=6, leadingAtHTPercentage_away=13). A full-time draw is also common – homes win just 13% of matches, whereas aways record as many as 53% draws over the season (winPercentage_home=13, drawPercentage_away=53), which increases the weight of draw outcomes. Goal and xG statistics show balanced chances: home xG is 1.15 versus 1.02 for away (xg_for_avg_home=1.15 vs xg_for_avg_away=1.02), and by half-time homes average 0.06 goals compared to 0.6 for aways (scoredAVGHT_home=0.06 vs scoredAVGHT_away=0.6), suggesting a low scoring tempo in the first half. Away players are more efficient in finishing (conversion rate 11% vs 4% for homes), but homes keep a clean sheet at half-time in 75% of matches (seasonCSPercentageHT_home=75), so the strongest, most consistent scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X).