Rot-Weiss Essen vs Havelse: match statistics

Both teams lost their only match of the season so far, but Rot-Weiss Essen went down 2:5, while Havelse lost 2:3, which marginally suggests greater resilience from the visitors. In their last five matches, both sides have recorded just one win and suffered four defeats, making it difficult to identify a clearly more consistent team. Havelse scored 7 goals during this period compared with Essen’s 4, but also conceded as many as 17, whereas the hosts allowed 12 goals. The goal difference over the last five matches stands at -10 for Havelse and -8 for Essen, and home advantage, combined with the visitors’ defensive frailties, gives the hosts a slight edge. Havelse’s league position is indeed higher—14th compared with Essen’s 19th—but this advantage is marginal and based on a very small sample of the season.

The “Yes” selection is supported by the league’s very high BTTS rate of 80%, with matches averaging 4.4 goals. In their last five games, Havelse recorded BTTS in 80% of cases, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding as many as 3.4, while Rot-Weiss Essen allowed opponents an average of 2.4 goals. The hosts scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period, but Havelse have an exceptionally weak defence: 17 goals conceded in five outings and an average of 2.0 xG allowed to opponents. At the same time, Essen generate 1.22 xG and Havelse 1.11 xG, so both sides have a realistic basis for finding the net. The biggest risk to BTTS is Essen’s lower attacking efficiency; however, the scale of both teams’ defensive problems points more clearly towards a goal for each side.

Both teams come into this match on very poor defensive runs: Rot-Weiss Essen have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches, while Havelse have conceded as many as 17. During this period, Havelse averaged 1.4 goals per game, while the hosts conceded 2.4, which clearly supports the prospect of an away goal. Meanwhile, Rot-Weiss Essen’s xG stands at 1.22, while Havelse allow opponents an average of 2.00 xG, meaning the hosts should also create enough chances. Over 2.5 goals was landed in 60% of Essen’s last five matches and in all five of Havelse’s games, while the league-wide average is a high 4.4 goals. However, the strongest pick remains Over 1.5, as the projected 2.97 goals and the vulnerability of both defences give this line by far the highest probability.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Rot-Weiss Essen victory, as Havelse were trailing at the break in 75% of their last five matches and conceded an average of 1.75 goals before half-time in those games. The hosts have also been weak early on, scoring just 0.4 goals in the first halves of their last five matches, making a draw after 45 minutes more likely than a clear lead for either side. After the break, Havelse concede an average of 2.0 goals, while Essen have favourable conditions to improve the result, given that their opponents have conceded an average of 3.4 goals across their last five matches. Both teams have won just 1 of their last 5 games, but the hosts’ goal difference over this period is less negative, and home advantage supports them ultimately deciding the match in their favour.