Rot-Weiss Essen vs Würzburger Kickers: match statistics

Rot-Weiss Essen are clearly in better form: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, recording 3 wins and a draw, while Würzburger Kickers have managed just 4 points and lost 3 games. The hosts have won both of their home matches so far without conceding a single goal, with an average xG of 1.74 and just 0.67 xG allowed to opponents. The visitors are still without an away win, concede an average of 2.5 goals per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Essen average 16 shots at home, including 4.5 on target, compared with just 7 attempts and 2 shots on target for Kickers away from home. The hosts’ advantage in the quality of chances created, combined with their defensive solidity, points to a home win.

Rot-Weiss Essen average 2.5 goals at home, while Würzburger Kickers concede 2.5 away from home, making a home goal highly likely. The key concern, however, is the visitors’ attacking output: their away average is just 1.0 goal, with an xG of 0.81 and only 2 shots on target per match. Essen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, while Kickers have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures. The trend from the last five matches also does not fully support BTTS - Yes, as both teams scored in only 20% of the hosts’ games, compared with 60% for the visitors. Würzburg’s defence, conceding 1.8 goals per match recently, supports an Essen win, but the more likely scenario is that at least one team—primarily the visitors—will fail to score. Therefore, BTTS - No is the preferred selection; this does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw, only that at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Rot-Weiss Essen score an average of 2.5 goals at home, while Würzburger Kickers concede as many as 2.5 goals per away game, which significantly strengthens the case for at least two goals. The hosts average 4.0 shots on target compared to their opponents’ 2.0, and their last five matches produced an xG of 1.74. Over the same period, the visitors’ defence allowed 1.42 xG and conceded an average of 1.8 goals, so Essen should create several quality chances. Both teams have recorded 100% of their matches with at least two goals so far, although caution around the 2.5 line is warranted due to the visitors’ low xG of 0.81. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.60 goals provides a clear margin above that line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, after which Rot-Weiss Essen should turn the game in their favour. The hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and have not been trailing at half-time in any of them, while Würzburger Kickers were leading at the break in only 40% of their matches during this period. Essen collected 10 points from their last five league fixtures and won 60% of those games, whereas the visitors lost 60% and conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances: their average xG stands at 1.14 compared with 0.81 for their opponents, while Würzburg allow opponents an xG of 1.66. After the interval, Essen averaged 1.0 goals in the season data, whereas the visitors failed to score a single goal in this period, further supporting the scenario of a turnaround after half-time.