Rotherham United vs Salford City: match statistics

Rotherham United have a clearly stronger home profile: they average 1.5 goals and have lost none of their two home matches, while Salford City have lost both away games. The visitors score just 0.5 goals per away match and failed to score in 50% of those fixtures, despite averaging 13.5 shots. Rotherham are more efficient, converting 13% of their attempts compared with Salford’s 4%, while also allowing opponents an xG of 1.35—lower than the 1.64 Salford concede away from home. Salford enjoy more possession, 58% compared with 37%, but fail to turn it into end product, as demonstrated by just 2 shots on target and an average of 2 goals conceded away. Rotherham’s form over their last five matches, with one win and two draws, is not impressive, but the hosts’ superior efficiency and Salford’s weakness away from home support a 1 result.

Rotherham should create the conditions for a goal, as Salford have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches, concede an average of 2.0 goals away from home, and allow opponents an xG of 1.64. The hosts generate a high home xG of 1.84 and average 4.67 shots on target, although their shooting efficiency is only 6%. Salford’s seasonal average of 0.5 goals is a clear risk, but across their last five matches the team produced an xG of 1.63, while Rotherham conceded an average of 1.4 goals over the same period. BTTS - Yes landed in 80% of Rotherham’s last five matches, compared with 40% for Salford, so the scenario in which both sides score has a moderate yet realistic edge. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Rotherham create plenty of chances at home, averaging 1.84 xG and 4.67 shots on target per match, while Salford concede an average of 2.00 goals away from home. At the same time, the hosts convert just 6% of their shots, whereas Salford score only 0.50 goals per away match and produce just 2.00 shots on target. Rotherham’s defence concedes an average of 0.67 goals and has kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches, limiting the visitors’ scoring potential despite their 1.33 xG. Over the last five matches, the teams’ average xG against each other stands at 1.31 and 1.63, but neither side has a profile suggesting a very high-scoring game. The hosts have had under 3.5 goals in 100% of their matches so far, making Under 3.5 the strongest selection with a projected total of 2.45 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Rotherham victory, as the hosts have yet to score before the break, just like Salford, while half-time draws accounted for 67% and 50% of their matches, respectively. Rotherham nevertheless have a clear overall quality advantage: they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, whereas Salford concede as many as 2.0 goals per match and have lost 100% of their away outings to date. The hosts’ superiority is also evident in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.84 compared with the opponents’ 1.33, while shots on target stand at 4.67 versus 2.0. After the break, Rotherham average 1.0 goals and have not lost a single second half, whereas Salford concede an average of 1.0 goal in the second period, favouring a home turnaround after a cautious start.