Rouen vs Aubagne: match statistics

Rouen holds a clear advantage in the table and defensively — they sit 4th, have scored 37 and conceded 24 this season, while Aubagne are 11th with 32 scored and 39 conceded. At home Rouen concedes on average 0.71 goals per game, keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches, produces average xG 1.44 and averages 12.07 shots (4.07 on target) with an 11% conversion rate. Aubagne away averages 9.86 shots (4.36 on target) with average xG 1.22, but concedes 1.29 goals per game and fail to score in 43% of away matches; in the last 5 games the visitors conceded 8 goals versus Rouen’s 5. Recent 5-game forms are similar (Rouen 1.2 points on average, Aubagne 1.0), yet Rouen’s defensive edge and much lower share of scoreless matches (21% vs 43%) indicate home control. Based on this I assess chances at 63% for Rouen, 20% for a draw and 17% for Aubagne.

Rouen has a seasonal BTTS rate of 79% with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match and only 7% clean sheets, strongly indicating goals from both sides. Aubagne has a seasonal BTTS of 43%, but in the last 5 matches both teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases, while Aubagne conceded on average 1.6 goals (8 conceded in 5 matches) and has a recent xG against of 1.93, indicating defensive vulnerability. Both teams generate similar seasonal xG (1.29 for Rouen vs 1.22 for Aubagne) and in the last 5 matches 1.35 vs 1.32, with almost 10 shots per game on average (9.79 vs 9.86), which supports goals from both sides. Considering the dominant Rouen signal (79% BTTS) along with high recent BTTS rates (60% for both) and Aubagne’s weaker defense, the "BTTS - Yes" option appears more likely.

Calculated xG yields expected goals of 1.37 for Rouen (attacking xG 1.29 vs opponent xG conceded 1.44) and 1.34 for Aubagne (attacking xG 1.22 vs opponent xG conceded 1.46), totaling 2.71 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.71 indicates P(>1.5) ≈75%, P(>2.5) ≈51% and P(>3.5) ≈29%. Seasonal rates reinforce the signal for Over 1.5: Rouen had Over1.5 in 86% of matches, Aubagne in 79% (average 82.5%), so the final forecast for Over1.5 is set at 82%. Over 2.5 is more balanced – Rouen only 29% of matches above 2.5, Aubagne 64%, and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded 40% Over2.5, hence the Over2.5 forecast ≈51%. The strongest play is Over 1.5 (line 1.5) due to the expected total of 2.71 goals, the high share of Over1.5 matches and Rouen’s low clean sheet rate (7%).

I predict the away team will lead at half-time and win the match (2/2). The home side trailed at half-time in 57% of matches and led in only 7%, strongly indicating Rouen rarely initiates the lead. Away teams score an average of 0.50 goals by half-time versus 0.21 for hosts, while the hosts concede an average of 0.86 goals before the break, so the likelihood of Aubagne leading at half-time is significant. In full time the away side wins 43% of matches versus 14% for the hosts; additionally they register more shots on target (4.36 vs 3.64) and have better finishing (13% vs 10%), which increases the probability of maintaining the lead. Although xG shows relatively similar chance creation (xG 1.29 for the hosts versus 1.22 for the away team), Rouen’s low conversion and their frequent falling behind at half-time support the 2/2 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario.