ROW Rybnik vs Carina Gubin: match statistics

ROW Rybnik are in significantly better form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and scoring 12 goals in the process, while Carina Gubin have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring just 7 goals. At home, the hosts average 5 goals per game with an xG of 2.54, whereas the visitors score only 1 goal away from home with an xG of 1.23. Rybnik also create considerably more danger, averaging 20 shots, including 10 on target, compared with Carina’s 14 attempts and 3 on target. Carina’s away defence concedes an average of 2 goals per match, and the team have lost 100% of their away games so far, further strengthening the hosts’ advantage. ROW also fail to keep clean sheets and allow opponents an xG of 1.84, meaning Carina have a realistic chance of scoring, but a home win remains the most likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear in the season data: both ROW Rybnik and Carina Gubin have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. Rybnik average 1.5 goals at home, while Carina concede 2.0 goals per away match, with a high expected goals against figure of 1.66. Carina score an average of 1.0 goal, while their season xG against Rybnik stands at as much as 2.26, indicating that despite their good results, the hosts allow opponents to create chances. The main risk to the pick is Rybnik’s current defensive form: they have conceded only 0.6 goals per match across their last five games, with xG against at 0.84. However, Carina scored an average of 1.4 goals during this period, and their BTTS rate was 80%. Therefore, the scenario in which both teams score at least one goal is more likely, although the advantage over the outcome where at least one side fails to score remains moderate.

ROW Rybnik are in very good attacking form: they have averaged 2.4 goals over their last 5 matches, while Carina Gubin conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game during this period. The hosts have created an average of 1.54 xG, whereas the visitors’ average xG conceded is as high as 1.96, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. Carina should also create chances, having scored in every match so far this season, while ROW are yet to keep a clean sheet. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 100% of both teams’ matches to date, while in their last five games, the percentage of matches featuring at least three goals stood at 60% for each side. A projected total of 2.80 goals provides the strongest betting edge on Over 1.5 goals, with greater caution advised on higher lines.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a ROW Rybnik win at full-time, as the hosts have won four of their last five matches, while Carina Gubin have suffered two defeats. Rybnik have made a very solid start to their matches: they have not conceded before the break in their recent games, and 67% of their first halves have ended level. The visitors have failed to score before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, were level at the break in 50% of cases, and were trailing in the remaining 50%. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as they average 1.67 goals, while their overall recent scoring record stands at 2.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per match, compared with Carina’s figures of 1.4 and 1.2 respectively.