ROW Rybnik vs Warta Gorzów: match statistics

I back the home win (1). ROW Rybnik scored 12 goals in their last five matches (avg. 2.4 goals per game) and won 4 of those 5 fixtures, while Warta Gorzów scored 7 goals (1.4 per game) with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Hosts have a clear offensive advantage (2.4 vs 1.4 average goals), but visitors counter with outstanding defense — only 2 goals conceded in 5 matches (0.4 per game) versus 6 for ROW (1.2 per game). In points from the last 5 matches ROW accumulated 12 points compared to Warta’s 10, and ROW’s 4-match winning run (lwwww) reinforces this advantage. Lack of detailed xG and shots data limits assessment of chance quality, so I estimate probabilities as follows: home 55%, draw 25%, away 20%.

Seasonal stats are mostly unavailable (many values = 0), so assessment is based primarily on the last 5 matches. ROW Rybnik in the last 5 fixtures scored 12 goals (avg. 2.4 per match) and conceded 6 goals (1.2 per match), while Warta Gorzów scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and conceded 2 goals (0.4 per match). BTTS occurred for ROW in 60% of the last 5 matches (3 of 5) and for Warta in 20% (1 of 5), which gives a mixed signal, but the comparison of goal averages indicates both teams have realistic scoring potential. Additionally, Warta's xG over the last 5 matches is 1.24 with xG against 1.07, confirming Warta creates around 1.2 xG and has a moderate chance to score, whereas xG for ROW is not available. For these reasons I favor the BTTS scenario: 62% Yes and 38% No.

ROW Rybnik has averaged 2.4 goals in the last 5 matches (12 goals in 5), Warta Gorzów 1.4 goals (7 goals in 5), totaling 3.8 goals per match. The home side had Over 2.5 in 80% of cases (4 of 5), the visitors in 40% (2 of 5), and BTTS occurred for the home team in 60% and for the visitors in 20%, suggesting ROW is more prone to goal-heavy matches. The xG report shows 1.24 xG for Warta over the last 5 matches, while ROW’s xG is 0.0 (no data), so I assess the visitors’ attacking productivity based on actual goals rather than the xG model. The combined average of 3.8 goals and the fact that ROW concedes on average 1.2 goals while Warta concedes 0.4 gives a clear edge to Over markets, especially at lines 1.5 and 2.5. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5; I project approximately 2.4 goals for the home team and 1.4 for the visitors (total 3.8).

ROW Rybnik has a clear offensive edge: over the last 5 matches they averaged 2.4 goals per game versus Warta Gorzów’s 1.4, and the home-win rate is 80% compared to 60% for the visitors, which favors a home victory. At Half-Time the situation is more balanced — the home side scored on average 1.0 goal in the first half, the visitors 0.75, and the visitors kept a clean sheet at the break in 100% of their five matches, which increases the probability of a draw after 45 minutes. The key signal is the second half: the hosts score on average 1.0 goal after the break (visitors only 0.25) and 100% of their matches had over 0.5 goals in the second half, while for the visitors that figure is 25%, suggesting the hosts are more likely to break a Half-Time stalemate. Therefore the strongest scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win Full-Time (X/1), assigned the highest probability (32%), with the alternative being a home lead from the start and a 1/1 Full-Time outcome (22%).