RSC Anderlecht vs Zulte-Waregem: match statistics

RSC Anderlecht have a clear edge in chance creation at home, averaging 19.33 shots and an xG of 2.20, while Zulte-Waregem record 12.33 shots and an xG of 1.46 away from home. The hosts are also highly consistent defensively on their own ground, conceding just 0.33 goals per match with an xGA of 0.73 and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their games. Anderlecht have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while their home record consists of 2 wins and 1 draw, with no defeats. Zulte-Waregem are also unbeaten away, but as many as 67% of those matches have ended in draws, and the team averages just 43% possession compared with Anderlecht’s 62%. The visitors are more efficient in front of goal, with an 11% conversion rate versus 5%, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. However, the hosts’ greater control and superior chance quality make Anderlecht the preferred side.

Both teams have a low percentage of matches with goals scored by both sides this season, at 33% each, compared with 43% across the league. The signal from the last five matches is even stronger: Anderlecht recorded no BTTS matches, while Zulte-Waregem recorded just 20%. Both teams’ defenses have conceded only 0.6 goals per match recently, with the hosts keeping a clean sheet in 33% of matches and the visitors in as many as 67%. Anderlecht does average 2.0 goals at home, but Zulte-Waregem has conceded just 0.67 goals per match this season, increasing the risk that one side will fail to score. The pick is BTTS - No, as the data on the teams’ current defensive solidity and the very low BTTS frequency clearly outweigh their solid xG figures of 1.55 and 1.46.

The latest results for both teams point to a controlled match profile: Anderlecht have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last 5 matches, while Zulte-Waregem have scored 1.6 goals and conceded just 0.6. Each team has recorded fewer than 3.5 goals in 67% of their matches so far, and only 40% of their last five fixtures exceeded the 2.5-goal line. Their average xG figures are solid, at 1.59 for Anderlecht and 1.54 for Zulte-Waregem, but their defences have limited opponents to 1.13 and 1.38 xG respectively. In addition, Anderlecht have not seen both teams score in any of their last five appearances, while Zulte-Waregem have recorded that scenario only once. The projected total of 2.30 goals leaves a clear margin below four goals, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest option.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Anderlecht victory at full-time, as Zulte-Waregem were level at the break in all three of their matches so far and recorded this outcome in 60% of their last five games. Anderlecht are nevertheless the stronger side over the course of the season: they have won 67% of their matches and averaged 2.00 points per game, compared with Zulte-Waregem’s 33% win rate and 1.67 points per match. The hosts also create slightly more chances, with an xG of 1.55 compared with the visitors’ 1.46, and average 14.33 shots against 12.33 for their opponents. After half-time, Anderlecht average 1.33 goals scored and concede none, while Zulte-Waregem score 1.00 goal but concede 0.33, further supporting a scenario in which the match is decided in the hosts’ favour in the second half. A cautious start is also likely, as the average number of first-half goals in the teams’ last five matches was just 1.00.