Rubio Ñú vs Guaraní: match statistics

Guaraní have the stronger season record, with 12 wins and 10 losses compared to Rubio Ñú’s 9 wins and 19 losses, and have picked up 8 points in their last five matches, compared to the hosts’ 5. However, the visitors draw as many as 56% of their away matches, while Rubio Ñú share the points in 39% of their home games. Both teams score close to one goal per match in these conditions: the hosts average 0.94 at home, while the visitors average 1.00 away. Guaraní defend better on the road, conceding an average of 0.94 goals compared to Rubio Ñú’s 1.00 at home, and keep a clean sheet in 50% of such matches, compared to 33% for the hosts. Although the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.36 xG at home, compared to the visitors’ 1.23 xG away, their finishing rate is lower: 7% versus 9%. A draw therefore looks the most likely outcome.

BTTS occurred in 53% of Rubio Ñú matches and 44% of Guaraní fixtures, so the overall picture does not clearly favor both teams to score. The stronger argument for BTTS - No is the visitors’ defensive record: they kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches and conceded an average of 0.94 goals, while the hosts failed to score in 26% of fixtures. On the other hand, Guaraní failed to score in 33% of matches, and Rubio Ñú conceded an average of 1.05 goals, also leaving room for a result in which at least one side fails to score. In their last five appearances, both teams scored 1.0 goals per match, while BTTS occurred in 60% of the hosts’ matches and 40% of the visitors’ games. xG of 1.40 for Rubio Ñú and 1.23 for Guaraní points to scoring chances at both ends, but the visitors’ frequent clean sheets tip the forecast slightly towards BTTS - No.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 79% of Rubio Ñú's matches and 78% of Guaraní's. The hosts average 1.32 goals and the visitors 1.00, which, against a league average of 2.44 goals, points to a relatively moderate number of goals. In addition, Guaraní keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and concede an average of 0.94 goals, making a high-scoring performance from Rubio Ñú less likely. In their last five matches, both teams scored 1.00 goal per game, although xG figures of 1.55 and 1.50, respectively, suggest they could create more chances. Therefore, the projected total of 2.35 goals favors Under 3.5 more clearly than the riskier Under 2.5 option.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: Guaraní were level at the break in 67% of their matches, compared with 37% for Rubio Ñú; over their last five matches, the figures were 80% and 60%, respectively. Both teams score relatively few first-half goals, averaging 0.44 and 0.47, further pointing to an evenly matched start. A draw after 90 minutes is also well supported, having occurred in 56% of Guaraní’s matches, while both teams drew 40% of their respective last five games. Although Rubio Ñú have the edge in average goals scored, 1.32 to 1.00, the visitors kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and concede an average of just 0.50 goals after half-time. Therefore, a draw at half-time and at full-time is the most likely single HT/FT scenario, although the hosts’ attacking advantage leaves a genuine chance of an X/1 outcome.