Rudar vs Dekani: match statistics

Rudar holds a clear advantage in home metrics: they average 1.79 goals and 5.08 shots on target per home match with a conversion rate of 17%, whereas Dekani average 0.64 goals and 3.36 shots on target away with a 7% conversion. The hosts’ defense looks more solid — Rudar concede 0.93 goals per home match and keep 43% clean sheets, while Dekani concede 1.50 goals on the road and have only a 7% clean sheet rate. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 8 goals, but Rudar conceded 5 compared to Dekani’s 8 and collected an average of 1.6 points per game versus the visitors’ 1.0. Over the season Rudar are 44-35 with a +12 home goal differential, while Dekani are 34-41 with a -12 away differential, which further supports the hosts. Considering the possession edge (53% vs 42%), lower share of matches without scoring (36% vs 57%) and higher xG for the hosts (1.59 vs 1.31), I tip a Rudar win.

Rudar at home scores an average of 1.79 goals this season and their matches feature BTTS in 57% of cases, while Dekani away average only 0.64 goals and have BTTS at 43%. However, in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60% and over that period each averaged 1.6 goals (8 goals in 5 matches), with concessions of 1.0 for Rudar and 1.6 for Dekani (respectively 5 and 8 goals conceded), suggesting an improved Dekani offense. Looking at xG, Rudar has xG_for 1.63 and xG_against 1.13 in the last 5 matches, and Dekani xG_for 1.26 and xG_against 1.09, so both teams create and concede around 1.1–1.6 xG per game, which favors an exchange of goals. Rudar also shows higher efficiency (conversion rate 20% versus 7% for Dekani) and 3.86 shots on target versus 3.36, and Dekani away have only 7% clean sheets, so despite their weaker seasonal attacking form the risk that both sides score is high. Considering Rudar’s 57% BTTS, the 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams and Dekani’s very low away clean sheet rate, I tip BTTS "Yes" with a probability 65% vs 35%.

Statistical analysis shows a clear signal for Over 1.5: Rudar averages 1.79 goals per game this season, Dekani 0.64, and the share of matches over 1.5 is 86% for Rudar and 79% for Dekani (average 82.5%), so I assign Over 1.5 a probability of 83%. My expected goals are based on a combination of xG and conversion: xG is 1.31 for both teams, but Rudar has a shot conversion of 20% versus Dekani’s 7%, therefore I forecast 1.63 goals for the home side and 0.97 for the away side (total 2.60). I assess Over 2.5 as moderately likely at 52%, because Rudar records 71% of matches over 2.5 and Dekani only 29%, with a league average of 54% – this yields a slightly balanced but moderate support for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely (22%), since only 29% of the home team’s matches and 14% of the away team’s exceed that threshold, and over 4.5 goals occurs in just 14% of the home matches. Therefore the best and strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.

Rudar has a clear advantage in half-time statistics: they score an average of 1.00 goals by half-time (26 HT goals this season) versus Dekani’s 0.36 (12 HT goals) and have led at the break in 29% of matches compared to the visitors’ 21%. Over the full match the hosts score an average of 1.79 goals versus Dekani’s 0.64, and the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals per game, which positions Rudar as the favorite. Although the xG of both teams is similar (1.31 vs 1.31), the hosts are significantly more efficient — a shot conversion rate of 20% versus 7% and 3.86 shots on target per game versus 3.36 indicate better chance utilization. Rudar scores an average of 1.36 goals after the break, while Dekani concedes an average of 1.0 goal after the break; additionally the hosts achieve 1.71 points in second-half statistics versus 0.57 for the visitors, suggesting that a lead at the break is likely to be maintained. From these numbers the most probable scenario is 1/1 (hosts leading at half-time and ultimately winning).