Rudeš vs Dubrava Zagreb: match statistics

Rudeš, the league leader (1st place), wins 79% of home matches, averages 1.5 goals and has an xG of 1.55 per game, while Dubrava scores only 0.69 goals away and has an xG of 1.27, giving a clear attacking edge to the hosts. In the last 5 matches Rudeš record 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with 2 points per game, whereas Dubrava have not won in their last 5 (0-1-4) and average only 0.2 points per game. Defensively the hosts concede 0.5 goals at home on average and keep 64% clean sheets, while the visitors concede 1.38 goals away and have shipped 16 goals in their last 5 fixtures. Quality of chances also favors Rudeš — 12 shots and 4.5 on target at home with a 13% conversion versus Dubrava’s 8.15 shots, 3.69 on target and 8% efficiency. For these reasons I back the home win and estimate probabilities at ~78% home, 12% draw and 10% away.

Rudeš has BTTS in 60% of matches this season while Dubrava only 38%, but Dubrava recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 fixtures, significantly increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring in the upcoming game. Dubrava conceded 16 goals in their last 5 matches (3.2 per game) whereas Rudeš scored 8 goals in that period (1.6 per game), indicating home attacking form and away defensive vulnerability. xG corroborates this pattern: Rudeš generates 1.41 xG while Dubrava concedes 1.29 xG, and Dubrava creates 1.27 xG while Rudeš concedes 1.44 xG, so both sides realistically project around 1.2–1.4 xG each. Additionally, the low number of clean sheets for Rudeš (20%) and Dubrava (31%), greater shot volume from Rudeš (avg. 10.4, including 3.6 on target) and Rudeš’s 13% conversion rate increase the probability that both teams will find the net. For these reasons I pick BTTS - Yes with a probability of 68% versus 32% for No.

A model based on xG and defensive data yields expected goals of 1.35 for Rudeš (xG attack 1.41 vs Dubrava xG defense 1.29) and 1.36 for Dubrava (xG attack 1.27 vs Rudeš xG defense 1.44), totaling approximately 2.71 goals. With λ=2.71 the Poisson distribution translates to roughly a 75% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 51% for Over 2.5 goals and around 29% for Over 3.5 goals. Seasonal and form indicators support this direction: Rudeš has 80% of matches with >1.5 and 67% with >2.5, while Dubrava in the last 5 matches had 100% of games with >2.5 and conceded 16 goals in those 5 matches (avg 3.2). Additionally Rudeš averages 10.4 shots with 3.6 on target and 13% conversion, whereas Dubrava averages 8.15 shots and 8% conversion, suggesting a home advantage in chance creation. Based on this, the strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5 (over, line 1.5) — highest probability and supported by season stats and recent performances.

Rudeš is clearly stronger on the season: they average 1.53 points per match versus Dubrava’s 0.85, winning 47% of games compared to only 15% for the visitors; in the last 5 matches the home side have a 60% win rate while Dubrava have 0%. In their most recent 5 matches Rudeš led at the break in 40% of games and averaged 1.0 first-half goals, whereas Dubrava were trailing at half-time in 80% of their last 5 and conceded an average of 2.0 goals by the break. Offensively the hosts produce an xG of 1.41 versus Dubrava’s 1.27, register 10.4 shots per game with a 13% conversion rate, while Dubrava average 8.15 shots and 8% conversion, which gives Rudeš higher chances to score in the first half and hold the lead. Considering the points advantage, form and half-time statistics, the strongest signal is Rudeš leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1), so I assign the highest probability to that scenario.