Rudeš vs Hrvace: match statistics

Rudeš is the clear favorite: at home they win 77% of matches, concede just 0.46 goals per game on average and keep a clean sheet in 69% of games, while Hrvace win only 15% away and keep a clean sheet in 15% of away matches. In attack the hosts also dominate — Rudeš score 1.46 goals at home on average and have xG 1.57 with 12.23 shots and 4.46 shots on target per game, whereas Hrvace register 0.77 goals away, xG 1.20, 8.23 shots and 3.31 on target. The efficiency gap is clear: the hosts’ shot conversion is 12% versus the visitors’ 9%, and Hrvace fail to score in 46% of away games compared to 15% for the hosts. Both teams have scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches, but Rudeš average 2.0 points per game in that period versus 1.8 for Hrvace, and the home goal difference +13 versus the visitors’ -13 on the road underlines the home advantage. Considering the hosts’ low goals conceded average (0.46), higher xG and superior efficiency, I predict a Rudeš victory.

Rudeš has a season BTTS rate of 54% versus Hrvace’s 46%, and in the last 5 matches the visitors register 60% BTTS while the hosts 40%, producing a mixed but slightly favorable signal for Goal/Goal. Both teams generate similar xG: 1.15 xG for Rudeš and 1.20 xG for Hrvace, with xG against of 1.05 (Rudeš) and 1.53 (Hrvace), so Rudeš should find space against the visitors’ weaker defence. Over the season Rudeš averages 1.38 goals scored and concedes 1.08, while Hrvace scores 0.77 and concedes 1.77; however, in the last 5 matches both teams have averaged 1.6 goals scored and Hrvace conceded 1.6, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Additionally, Rudeš’s higher conversion rate (16% vs 9%) and comparable shot volume (8.85 vs 8.23) and on-target shots (3.69 vs 3.31), plus Hrvace’s low clean sheet expected rate (15% vs 31%), lead me to favour BTTS - Yes (62%) over No (38%).

Season-long statistics strongly favor Over 1.5: Rudeš have 62% of matches with over 1.5 goals and Hrvace 69% (average 65.5%), indicating a high probability of at least two goals. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored an average of 1.6 goals each (3.2 per match total), and the xG model shows 1.34 xG for Rudeš and 1.13 xG for Hrvace, totaling 2.47 expected goals. Rudeš convert shots more efficiently (16% vs 9%) and register more shots per game (8.85 vs 8.23, with more on target 3.69 vs 3.31), which increases the home side’s scoring likelihood. Season rates for Over 2.5 are 54% for Rudeš and 62% for Hrvace (58% average), so Over 2.5 has a moderate chance, while Over 3.5 is unlikely (23% for both). Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Rudeš is the statistical favorite: the home side average 1.38 goals per match versus Hrvace’s 0.77, and concede 1.08 compared to 1.77 for the visitors, with home win rate at 46% versus only 15% for Hrvace. At Half-Time Rudeš lead in 46% of matches and average 0.62 goals by the break, while Hrvace manage only 0.38 goals before half-time, which increases the likelihood of Rudeš holding a lead at the break. In the second half the visitors are more likely to concede — Hrvace concede an average 1.31 goals after the break versus 0.54 conceded by Rudeš — and the home side’s shot conversion is 16% versus 9% for the away team, favoring maintenance or extension of the lead. On this basis the most likely HT/FT scenario is Rudeš leading at half-time and winning at full-time (I estimate 34% for 1/1), while a draw after a Rudeš lead (1/X) I assess at 7% and a turnaround by the visitors (2/1) at about 9%.