Rustavi vs Gagra: match statistics

Rustavi are the league leaders at home, winning 80% of their matches on home soil, while Gagra have won just 30% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 1.5 goals at home and have failed to score in none of their matches, whereas the visitors score only 1.0 goal per away game and draw a blank in 30% of such fixtures. Rustavi’s advantage is also evident defensively: they concede an average of 0.7 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 60% of their fixtures, compared with Gagra’s 1.3 goals conceded and just 10% clean-sheet rate. Chance quality also slightly favours the hosts, whose average xG is 1.28, while Gagra’s away xG against is 1.65. Rustavi have won 4 of their last 5 matches, whereas Gagra are unbeaten in five, although they have drawn 3 of those games, increasing the likelihood of a controlled home win.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are high on both sides: 64% for Rustavi and 60% for Gagra, compared with the league average of 57%. Both teams score an average of 1.0 goal per match, while their opponents concede 1.30 and 1.27 goals respectively, creating fairly balanced conditions for goals from both sides. The quality of chances also supports a goal-filled scenario: Rustavi generate 1.45 xG and Gagra 1.18 xG, while the xG conceded by their opponents stands at 1.65 and 1.54. Their attacking form over the last five matches is better than their seasonal averages, with the home side scoring 1.6 goals and the visitors 1.8 goals per match. The only risk to the pick is Rustavi's 20% BTTS rate in their last five matches; however, Gagra's 80% BTTS rate over the same period, along with their low clean-sheet percentages of 18% and 10%, still slightly supports the BTTS - Yes scenario.

The season profiles of both teams point to matches most commonly finishing within the 2–3-goal range: Rustavi score an average of 1.00 goals and concede 1.27, while Gagra record 1.00 and 1.30 respectively. The 3.5-goal line has been surpassed in just 9% of Rustavi’s matches and 10% of Gagra’s, while 91% and 90% of their respective games finished below it. The last five matches have been more attacking, with Rustavi averaging 1.6 goals scored and Gagra 1.8, although both teams conceded only 0.8 and 1.0 goals per game during this period. The estimated 2.53 goals is also supported by the quality of chances, with average attacking xG of 1.45 for the hosts and 1.18 for the visitors. At the same time, the very high share of historical results featuring no more than three goals clearly favours the Under 3.5 goals option.

A draw at half-time is the most natural starting point, as Rustavi were level after 45 minutes in 64% of their matches and Gagra in 50%; both teams score very few goals before the break, averaging just 0.45 and 0.30 respectively per game. Rustavi have, however, clearly improved their recent form: they won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, while Gagra drew 3 of their last 5 outings. The hosts are also more effective at creating chances, averaging 4.36 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 3.00, while their xG stands at 1.45 versus Gagra’s 1.18. After the break, Gagra have a solid record, averaging 0.70 goals, but Rustavi have conceded just 0.60 goals in this period across their last five matches. The most likely scenario, therefore, remains a tight and cautious opening, followed by Rustavi capitalising on their superior form and home advantage to secure a full-time victory.