Rutsiro vs AS Kigali: match statistics
Rutsiro vs AS Kigali: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rutsiro played AS Kigali in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 22 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Rutsiro: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. AS Kigali: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rutsiro scores 0.88 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. AS Kigali scores 0.73 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.10 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rutsiro 53%, AS Kigali 39%. Over 2.5: Rutsiro 47%, AS Kigali 30%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 37%.
xG, shots and style
AS Kigali has higher xG: 1.24 vs 1.14. Rutsiro: 6.7 shots per match, AS Kigali: 7.4.
Match halves
Rutsiro: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 0.47. AS Kigali: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
Rutsiro: 76-90+ (6 goals). AS Kigali: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.10 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 37%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an AS Kigali win. The visitors have 7 wins this season versus Rutsiro’s 5 and a 31% away win rate compared to just 7% home wins for the hosts. In the last 5 matches both teams averaged 0.8 points and one win each. Defensively AS Kigali is better — Rutsiro conceded 44 goals this season, averaging 1.40 goals conceded at home, while AS Kigali conceded 36 goals and 1.31 on the road; the visitors also have 38% clean sheets away versus 27% for the hosts. Offensive stats are similar: Rutsiro at home average 0.93 goals and xG 1.22 with 3.23 shots on target, and AS Kigali away 0.94 goals and xG 1.18 with 2.43 shots on target; conversion rate is 13% for both teams, but the hosts failed to score in 47% of home matches versus 25% of matches with no goals by the visitors. Considering the visitors’ advantage in away win percentage (31% vs 7%), better defence and much lower share of matches without scoring (25% vs 47%), I give the visitors a 52% chance to win, 28% for a draw and 20% for the hosts to win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I rate No BTTS (No Goal) as more likely (60% vs 40%) based on seasonal indicators: Rutsiro has BTTS 38%, AS Kigali 44%, while the league average is 45%, so both teams are below/around league level. Both sides kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches, and the league percentage of fixtures with at least one clean sheet is 68%, increasing the likelihood that one side will not score. Offensively they average only 0.56 (Rutsiro) and 0.94 (AS Kigali) goals per match, and in the last 5 games they have 0.6 and 0.8 goals, which limits the probability that both will score. Although xG_for is 1.28 for Rutsiro and 1.18 for AS Kigali with xG_against around 1.3–1.42 (so technical scoring potential exists), the gap between xG and actual goals (0.56 vs 1.28 and 0.94 vs 1.18) and the lower home conversion (7% vs 13% for the visitors) together favor the 'No' (No BTTS) scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for both teams is 1.28 (Rutsiro) + 1.18 (AS Kigali) = 2.46 xG per match, while seasonal goals scored averages are 0.56 for Rutsiro and 0.94 for AS Kigali. Rutsiro average 8.56 shots with a 7% conversion (≈0.60 goals from shots), AS Kigali 7.71 shots with 13% conversion (≈1.00 goal), so actual finishing is below xG. Adjusting the combined xG = 2.46 for low conversion and seasonal averages, I project about 0.90 goals for the home side and 1.25 for the away side, ~2.15 goals total. That translates to estimated probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 63%, Over 2.5 ≈ 36%, Over 3.5 ≈ 17% — seasonal Over 1.5 rates are 50% (Rutsiro) and 69% (AS Kigali), and the last 5 matches for both teams show 60% Over 2.5, which further increases the chance of at least two goals. Best play is an Over on the 1.5 line, since combined xG 2.46 and a forecasted 2.15 goals provide a meaningful probability of at least two strikes despite low shot conversion.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: the home side were level at the break in 63% of matches and the visitors in 69%, giving roughly a 66% chance of an HT draw. First halves are low-scoring – home teams average 0.13 goals by half-time, visitors 0.31, so a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline at the break is most likely. In the second half the visitors dominate – second-half goals average 1.38 for the away side versus 1.00 for the homes, and the visitors win the second half 38% of the time compared to 13% for the hosts, which increases the number of turnarounds after the break. Additionally, the visitors have higher finishing efficiency (shot conversion 13% vs 7%) and a higher share of full-time wins (31% vs 13% for the hosts), so I project a Half-Time/Full-Time outcome of draw at the break and an away win by full-time (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rutsiro | AS Kigali | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rutsiro is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
0.88 goals / match - Rutsiro · 0.73 goals / match - AS Kigali
AS Kigali is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.38 goals / match - Rutsiro · 1.15 goals / match - AS Kigali
Rutsiro scores in 53% of matches (17 of 32 matches), while AS Kigali keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 matches).
AS Kigali scores in 58% of matches (19 of 33 matches), while Rutsiro keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rutsiro
Over / Under - AS Kigali
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rutsiro is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.94 pts / match - Rutsiro · 0.82 pts / match - AS Kigali
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rutsiro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 16%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
AS Kigali - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rutsiro
AS Kigali
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Rutsiro | Liga | AS Kigali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.25 | 2.10 | ▼ 1.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 45% | ▼ 39% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 47% | 37% | ▼ 30% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 34% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 61% | ▼ 48% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 66% | 70% | ▲ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Rutsiro 0 - 1 - 0 AS Kigali. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Rutsiro vs AS Kigali?
The National Soccer League match finished Rutsiro 2:1 AS Kigali. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Rutsiro vs AS Kigali?
Rutsiro score 0.88 goals per game on average and AS Kigali 0.73. The National Soccer League average is 2.10 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 37% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Rutsiro's matches and 39% of AS Kigali's.
What form are Rutsiro and AS Kigali in?
Over the last 5 games Rutsiro have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and AS Kigali 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rutsiro vs AS Kigali?
The statistical background for Rutsiro vs AS Kigali — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.