Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi: match statistics

Saburtalo sit higher in the table, in 2nd place, and have collected 8 points from their last five matches, posting a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, while Dinamo Tbilisi have won only twice and lost 3 matches. The hosts are solid defensively at home, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 40% of their appearances, but their average of 1.2 goals scored limits the likelihood of a convincing victory. Dinamo create more chances away from home, recording 1.86 xG, 15.2 shots and 5.7 shots on target per match compared with Saburtalo’s 1.48 xG and 10.2 shots. However, the visitors have a weaker recent defensive trend, having conceded 12 goals in their last five matches, and they also fail to score in 30% of away fixtures. Both teams draw 40% of their matches at home and away respectively, making a share of the points in a closely contested encounter the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by Dinamo Tbilisi’s high seasonal rate of such matches, standing at 70%, compared with 55% for Saburtalo and a league average of 57%. Both teams create plenty of chances: average xG stands at 1.78 for the hosts and 1.86 for the visitors, while shots on target average 5.0 and 5.7 per match, respectively. Saburtalo recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.4, while Dinamo conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game. The visitors keep a clean sheet in only 30% of matches, while the hosts fail to score in 36%; however, Saburtalo’s attacking potential and Dinamo’s weaker recent defensive form clearly increase the likelihood of both teams finding the net.

Both teams create plenty of chances: Saburtalo’s average xG is 1.78, while Dinama Tbilisi’s stands at 1.86, with both opponents conceding an identical average xG of 1.32. In their last five matches, Saburtalo averaged 1.8 goals scored, whereas Dinamo conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game, clearly increasing the hosts’ attacking potential. At least two goals were scored in 73% of Saburtalo’s matches and 70% of Dinamo’s, while in their last five outings, the percentage of games finishing Over 2.5 goals was 60% and 80%, respectively. Dinamo averages 15.2 shots and 5.7 shots on target per match, compared with Saburtalo’s 14.55 and 5.0, so both sides should consistently create danger. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as it combines highly consistent season-long data with an elevated goal rate in both teams’ current form.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Saburtalo were level at the break in 55% of their matches, compared with 40% for Dinamo Tbilisi. The first half should be closely contested: the hosts average 0.82 goals scored in this period, while the visitors average 0.90, although Dinamo concede only 0.70 goals before half-time. After the interval, however, the advantage shifts to Saburtalo, who have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over their last five matches, while Dinamo have scored 0.6 and allowed opponents 1.2 goals per game. Overall match form also supports the hosts: Saburtalo have averaged 1.6 points in their last five appearances, compared with just 1.2 for Dinamo, who have lost 60% of those matches. Over the season, Dinamo have been the stronger side, averaging 1.90 points per match versus Saburtalo’s 1.36, but their recent defence has conceded 2.4 goals per game, reinforcing the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time.