Saburtalo vs Samgurali: match statistics
Saburtalo vs Samgurali: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Saburtalo played Samgurali in Erovnuli Liga (Georgia). The match was played on 7 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Saburtalo: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match. Samgurali: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Saburtalo scores 0.75 and concedes 0.50 goals per match. Samgurali scores 1.00 and concedes 1.20. League average: 1.96 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Saburtalo 25%, Samgurali 60%. Over 2.5: Saburtalo 25%, Samgurali 40%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Saburtalo has higher xG: 1.33 vs 1.26. Saburtalo: 8.8 shots per match, Samgurali: 8.8.
Match halves
Saburtalo: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.50. Samgurali: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.80.
Goals by minute
Saburtalo: 61-75 (2 goals). Samgurali: 76-90+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Erovnuli Liga: 1.96 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 25%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Saburtalo, primarily due to a very strong home defense: 100% clean sheets and an average of 0.0 goals conceded per match at their stadium. The hosts average 4.5 shots on target and have an xG of 1.37 per home match, while Samgurali on the road records only 2.67 shots on target and an xG of 1.20, giving the hosts the edge in quality of created chances. Samgurali, however, have scored more goals this season (5 vs 3) and possess a slightly better recent form over the last five matches (1.6 points per game vs 1.4 for Saburtalo), so the visitors can be dangerous offensively. Considering Saburtalo’s low home finishing (0.5 goals per game on average and 50% of home matches without scoring) and Samgurali’s poorer away record (goal difference -2 and an average of 1.33 goals conceded on the road), I expect a low-scoring encounter with a minimal lean towards a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - Yes is more likely due to a mix of offensive and defensive signals: Saburtalo has a season BTTS of 100% and at home averages 1.5 goals scored vs 1.0 conceded, while Samgurali on the road has BTTS 33% and averages 0.67 goals scored. xG analysis shows both teams create real chances: Saburtalo xG is 1.43 versus Samgurali’s average xG conceded 1.25, and Samgurali xG is 1.20 versus Saburtalo’s average xG conceded 0.85, suggesting roughly 1.4 and 1.2 expected goals for home and away. Saburtalo averages 4.5 shots on target with a 17% conversion rate, and Samgurali 2.67 shots on target with a 7% conversion; this increases the likelihood of a home goal, though the visitors’ low efficiency limits their real chances. Note Saburtalo has only 3 goals scored and 2 conceded at home this season (small sample), while Samgurali has a 67% clean sheet rate away; additionally the last 5 matches show BTTS 40% for Saburtalo and 60% for Samgurali, which slightly favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on this I forecast a 65% probability for BTTS - Yes and 35% for BTTS - No, recommending a Yes bet as the strongest signal from the available data.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I recommend an Over 1.5 goals bet: expected goals total 2.36 (1.34 for Saburtalo and 1.02 for Samgurali), which in a Poisson model yields about a 68% probability of at least 2 goals. Saburtalo averages 1.5 goals at home and has xG 1.43, while Samgurali as the away side concedes 1.25 xG on average to opponents, translating into 1.34 expected goals for the home team. Hosts record 4.5 shots on target per game versus Samgurali’s 2.67 and have a conversion rate of 17% vs 7%, so the quality of chances favors Saburtalo. Seasonal percentages confirm home-side pressure (100% of Saburtalo’s home matches over 1.5 goals vs 33% for Samgurali away), although Samgurali has 67% clean sheets on the road; the low absolute goal counts this season (Saburtalo 3 scored, Samgurali 6 conceded) indicate a small sample size, so greater weight should be given to xG and shot metrics. Over 2.5 delivers a weaker signal (~42% per the model), and Over 3.5 only ~21%, therefore the best and safest option is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Saburtalo has superior offensive metrics: on average 1.5 goals per match versus Samgurali’s 0.67, xG 1.43 vs 1.20, and 4.5 shots on target compared to 2.67, with shot conversion rates of 17% vs 7%. At Half-Time the home side average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (scoredAVGHT_home 0.0, concededAVGHT_home 1.0) and trailingAtTheBreakPercentage_home 100.0%, whereas Samgurali average 0.33 goals by Half-Time and HTPoints_away 4.0, indicating the visitors more frequently lead after 45 minutes. Saburtalo’s key strength emerges in the second half: the hosts score an average 1.5 goals after the break and do not concede (scored_2hg_avg_home 1.5, conceded_2hg_avg_home 0.0), have 100.0% success in second halves and average 3.0 points from those periods, suggesting a tendency to stage a turnaround. As a result the most likely scenario is Samgurali leading at Half-Time with Saburtalo winning at Full-Time (HT/FT 2/1). I therefore assign 40% to 2/1, 18% each to X/1 and 12% to 2/X as main alternatives, while scenarios with the home side leading at the break are judged unlikely (leadingAtHTPercentage_home 0.0%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Saburtalo | Samgurali | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 54% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Saburtalo is 9% better for: last-5 form.
1.75 pts / match - Saburtalo · 1.6 pts / match - Samgurali
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Samgurali is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
0.75 goals / match - Saburtalo · 1 goals / match - Samgurali
Saburtalo is 140% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.5 goals / match - Saburtalo · 1.2 goals / match - Samgurali
Saburtalo scores in 50% of matches (2 of 4 matches), while Samgurali keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 matches).
Samgurali scores in 80% of matches (4 of 5 matches), while Saburtalo keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Saburtalo
Over / Under - Samgurali
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Saburtalo is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Saburtalo · 0.8 pts / match - Samgurali
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Saburtalo - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Samgurali - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 25% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 75% |
| No goal | 75% | 50% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Saburtalo
Samgurali
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Erovnuli Liga).
Teams vs league
| Saburtalo | Liga | Samgurali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.25 | 1.96 | ▲ 2.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 42% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 46% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 40% | • 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 25% | 58% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 67% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Saburtalo 3 - 1 - 0 Samgurali. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 25% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
The Erovnuli Liga match finished Saburtalo 2:1 Samgurali. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Saburtalo and Samgurali?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Saburtalo won 3, Samgurali won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Saburtalo score 0.75 goals per game on average and Samgurali 1.00. The Erovnuli Liga average is 1.96 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Saburtalo's matches and 60% of Samgurali's.
What form are Saburtalo and Samgurali in?
Over the last 5 games Saburtalo have a 2-1-1 record (1.75 points per game) and Samgurali 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Saburtalo vs Samgurali: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.