Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising: match statistics
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sacramento Republic played Phoenix Rising in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Sacramento Republic: 1-2-1, 1.25 points/match. Phoenix Rising: 0-3-1, 0.75 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sacramento Republic scores 1.00 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Phoenix Rising scores 1.25 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.61 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sacramento Republic 50%, Phoenix Rising 100%. Over 2.5: Sacramento Republic 25%, Phoenix Rising 50%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Sacramento Republic has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.29. Sacramento Republic: 10.0 shots per match, Phoenix Rising: 10.3.
Match halves
Sacramento Republic: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.00. Phoenix Rising: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Sacramento Republic: 61-75 (2 goals). Phoenix Rising: 76-90+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.61 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-3-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 75%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sacramento holds a clear home advantage: the hosts score an average of 1.33 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.59 and concede 1.00, while Phoenix on the road scores 1.00 goals on average, has xG 1.21 and concedes 1.5. The visitors have been impressive offensively in the short term — 10 goals in the last 5 matches versus Sacramento’s 8, and they average 1.8 points per match in that period compared to the hosts’ 1.6. However, Sacramento’s key advantages are game control and the quality of chances created: 58% possession, on average 11 shots and 4 on target at home versus 45% possession, 9 shots and 3.5 on target for Phoenix, which correlates with the higher home xG 1.59 vs the visitors’ 1.21. Additionally, Phoenix have yet to register an away win (0% away wins) and have no clean sheets on the road (0% clean sheets), whereas Sacramento win 33% of home matches and have a +1 goal differential at their stadium. Based on these numbers I predict a home victory and estimate probabilities of: 60% for Sacramento, 25% for a draw and 15% for Phoenix, due to superior xG, higher possession and lower average goals conceded by the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 100% (Sacramento 100% vs Phoenix 100%) and neither side has recorded a clean sheet (clean sheets 0% vs 0%), which is the strongest argument for a Goal/Goal scenario. Form signals are mixed: in the last 5 matches Sacramento had BTTS in 40% of games (2/5), while Phoenix in 80% (4/5), with average goals in the last 5 matches of 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded for Sacramento and 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded for Phoenix. Seasonal xG values indicate attacks are generating chances: xG for Sacramento 1.36 vs 1.21 for Phoenix, and xG against seasonally 1.44 (Sacramento) vs 1.09 (Phoenix), meaning both teams create and concede scoring opportunities. Sacramento averages 11.5 shots and 4.5 on target per match, Phoenix 9.0 and 3.5, with conversion rates 13% vs 11%; additionally league-wide BTTS is 56%, so the tendency favors taking the Both Teams To Score option. Given the 100% season BTTS, 0% clean sheets and strong offensive metrics for both teams, I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely at around 80% (pick: yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The average xG model vs opponent defenses estimates about 1.23 goals for Sacramento (xG 1.36 vs Phoenix defense 1.09 → (1.36+1.09)/2≈1.23) and 1.33 for Phoenix (xG 1.21 vs Sacramento defense 1.44 → ≈1.33), total ≈2.56. Both teams have 100% of season matches over 1.5 goals and 100% BTTS, which is a very strong signal for Over 1.5. Shot metrics confirm sustained offensive pressure: Sacramento averages 11.5 shots and 4.5 on target (conversion 13%), Phoenix 9.0 shots and 3.5 on target (conversion 11%), so scoring opportunities should arise. The 2.5 line is balanced (seasonally 50% for both teams, league 56% Over 2.5) and with an expected 2.56 gives a slight edge to Over 2.5 (~58%), whereas Over 3.5 is less likely (~30%) due to the 2.56 expected total and Phoenix having no matches above 3.5 this season.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Strong signal that the visitors lead at the break: in 3 of the last 5 matches the away side were leading at half-time (60%), while the hosts did so in only 1 of 5 (20%). Despite this, the home team performs better after the break — in the second half the hosts average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, and over the last 5 matches the hosts have averaged 2.2 points after the break versus 1.6 points for the visitors (2.2 vs 1.6). The hosts are also more active in attack: they average 11.5 shots with 4.5 on target and xG 1.36 compared to 9.0 shots, 3.5 on target and xG 1.21 for the visitors (11.5/4.5/xG1.36 vs 9.0/3.5/xG1.21), which increases the chance of a turnaround. Additionally, both teams have 100% of season matches with goals for both sides (BTTS 100%), but BTTS in the first half is 0% for both, so the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and the hosts winning the match (HT/FT 2/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sacramento Republic | Phoenix Rising | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sacramento Republic is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.25 pts / match - Sacramento Republic · 0.75 pts / match - Phoenix Rising
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Phoenix Rising is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Sacramento Republic · 1.25 goals / match - Phoenix Rising
Sacramento Republic is 100% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Sacramento Republic · 1.5 goals / match - Phoenix Rising
Sacramento Republic scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Phoenix Rising keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 4 matches).
Phoenix Rising scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Sacramento Republic keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sacramento Republic
Over / Under - Phoenix Rising
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Phoenix Rising is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.75 pts / match - Sacramento Republic · 1 pts / match - Phoenix Rising
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sacramento Republic - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Phoenix Rising - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 25% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 75% |
| No goal | 100% | 25% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 75% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 25% |
| No goal | 75% | 25% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sacramento Republic
Phoenix Rising
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Sacramento Republic | Liga | Phoenix Rising | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.75 | 2.61 | ▲ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 52% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 28% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 25% | 59% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 87% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Sacramento Republic 1 - 3 - 0 Phoenix Rising. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 75% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
The USL Championship match finished Sacramento Republic 2:0 Phoenix Rising. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Sacramento Republic won 1, Phoenix Rising won 0 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Sacramento Republic score 1.00 goals per game on average and Phoenix Rising 1.25. The USL Championship average is 2.61 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Sacramento Republic's matches and 100% of Phoenix Rising's.
What form are Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising in?
Over the last 5 games Sacramento Republic have a 1-2-1 record (1.25 points per game) and Phoenix Rising 0-3-1 (0.75 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
The statistical background for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.