Saint-Étienne vs Clermont: match statistics

Saint-Étienne have the stronger recent attacking record, scoring 12 goals in five matches, while Clermont have managed just 4 goals over the same period. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 points per game, marginally more than Clermont’s 1.6. Clermont have nevertheless displayed the tighter defence in the short-term trend, conceding 3 goals in five appearances compared with Saint-Étienne’s 6, and have suffered only 1 defeat. Saint-Étienne won their only league match to date 3:0 and sit top of the table, whereas Clermont drew their match and are eighth. The hosts’ superior finishing and home advantage point towards a victory, although the visitors’ solid defence clearly increases the likelihood of a draw.

The BTTS signal is not moderate, as both teams have produced this scenario in only 40% of their last five matches, compared with a league average of 44%. Clermont scored just 0.8 goals per match during this period and conceded only 0.6, which supports outcomes in which at least one side fails to score. Saint-Étienne are considerably more effective, averaging 2.4 goals scored, but their opponents make few defensive errors, despite allowing an average xG of 1.57. The visitors do have an xG of 1.03, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.16, so a Clermont goal is plausible; however, the visitors’ low actual attacking output reduces its probability. Therefore, BTTS - No remains the most likely outcome, especially with a potential home win to nil.

Saint-Étienne have averaged 2.4 goals scored across their last five matches, but their average xG was only 0.84, suggesting they have been outperforming the quality of chances created. Clermont scored just 0.8 goals per game during this period and conceded only 0.6, making it difficult to expect the visitors to significantly increase the overall goal tally. The xG comparison points to a moderate scenario: 0.84 xG for the hosts against 1.57 xG conceded by Clermont, and 1.03 xG for the visitors compared with 1.16 xG allowed by Saint-Étienne. The projected total of 2.25 goals is slightly above the league average of 2.22, but remains comfortably below the 3.5 line. Although 80% of Saint-Étienne’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, only 20% of Clermont’s games followed that pattern, making Under 3.5 the strongest data-backed option.

Saint-Étienne won 3 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game during that period, while Clermont scored just 0.8 goals per match. The hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, averaging 1.4 first-half goals compared with 0.6 for the visitors. Clermont failed to score in the first half in as many as 60% of those matches, whereas Saint-Étienne scored before half-time in all five games. The hosts also retain the offensive edge after the break, averaging 1.0 goals compared with Clermont’s 0.2. Therefore, the HT/FT scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time and go on to win is the strongest.