Saint-Étienne vs Rodez: match statistics

Saint-Étienne sit 1st in the table and have won all 3 of their home matches so far, while 14th-placed Rodez have lost 2 of their 3 away games. At home, the hosts average 3.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while the visitors score 2 goals per away game but concede as many as 2.67. Saint-Étienne’s advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances: their home xG stands at 1.90, compared with the 1.67 xG Rodez concede away from home. In their last 5 matches, the hosts have scored 14 goals and recorded 3 wins, while Rodez have won just once and conceded 13 goals. The visitors’ attack could trouble the hosts, but their defensive problems clearly increase Saint-Étienne’s chances of winning.

Both teams are frequently involved in matches with goals at both ends: the BTTS rate is 75% for Saint-Étienne and 67% for Rodez, compared with 59% league-wide. In their last 5 matches, the figures were 100% and 80%, respectively, with the teams scoring an average of 2.8 and 2.2 goals per match. The hosts average 2.0 goals at home with an xG of 1.98, while Rodez concede an average of 2.67 goals away from home, strongly supporting the prospects of a Saint-Étienne goal. The visitors also have attacking credentials: they average 2.0 goals away from home with an xG of 1.62, while the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals at home. The main risk is that Rodez have failed to score in 33% of their away matches; however, neither team has kept a clean sheet, and their recent results point towards BTTS - Yes.

In their last 5 matches, Saint-Étienne scored an average of 2.8 goals and conceded 1.6, while Rodez scored 2.2 and conceded 2.6, giving totals of 4.4 and 4.8 goals per match, respectively. The goal-scoring signal is stronger than the league baseline: the average in Ligue 2 is 2.57 goals, while the hosts have gone over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 matches and the visitors in 80% of theirs. Their attacking potential is backed up by xG figures of 1.98 for Saint-Étienne and 1.62 for Rodez; the visitors allow opponents to generate an average of 1.67 xG. Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick, as this line has been reached in 75% of the hosts’ matches analysed and 100% of the visitors’ matches, with neither team keeping a clean sheet in those samples.

The strongest indication that Saint-Étienne will lead at the break comes from Rodez’s performances: the visitors were trailing at half-time in all three of their away matches and conceded an average of two goals before the break. Across their last five matches, Saint-Étienne averaged 2.8 goals and won 60% of the time, while Rodez conceded 2.6 goals on average and lost 60% of their matches. The hosts also boast a higher average xG, 1.98 compared with their opponents’ 1.62, and more shots on target: 7 versus 4.67. Although Saint-Étienne led at half-time in only 25% of their home matches, Rodez’s poor starts and the hosts’ attacking advantage make a home lead at the break maintained through to full-time the most likely single scenario in the HT/FT market.