Salernitana vs Cavese: match statistics

Both teams come into this match on the back of a poor run, but Salernitana have picked up 2 points from their last 5 matches, compared with Cavese’s 5. The hosts are, however, more effective at home: they score an average of 1 goal per match and have failed to score in none of their home fixtures, while Cavese average 0 goals away from home and have failed to score in 100% of such matches. The visitors do create more chances, with an away xG of 1.90 compared with Salernitana’s 1.18 at home, but they have not converted this into goals despite averaging 19 shots and 5 shots on target per match. Cavese concede an average of 3 goals away from home, compared with 2 goals conceded by Salernitana at home, and neither side have kept a clean sheet so far. Home advantage and Cavese’s extremely poor away finishing point slightly towards a Salernitana victory, although a draw remains a realistic scenario.

The signal for both sides to score is primarily driven by recent form: Salernitana and Cavese recorded BTTS in 80% and 60%, respectively, of their previous five matches. Both teams conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game during this period, while their opponents’ average xG stood at 1.62 for Salernitana and 1.34 for Cavese. Salernitana generated an average of 1.45 xG, compared with 1.34 for Cavese, indicating genuine attacking foundations on both sides despite modest average goals scored of 0.8 and 1.0. The hosts register 7 shots on target per match, while the visitors record 5, and neither team has kept a clean sheet in the analysed seasonal data. The main risk to the pick is Cavese’s zero scoring efficiency in the current season sample; however, the league records BTTS in 65% of matches, making the "Yes" option slightly more likely.

In their last five matches, Salernitana averaged 0.8 goals scored, while Cavese averaged 1.0, with both teams conceding an identical average of 1.6 goals. Only 40% of each team’s recent matches went over 2.5 goals, which stands in clear contrast to the league average of 3.3 goals. However, the scoring potential remains noticeable: the average xG from the last five appearances stands at 1.45 for the hosts and 1.34 for the visitors, making the expected total of 2.60 goals insufficient to support the low 1.5 line. Salernitana records 17 shots and 7 shots on target per home match, but its current scoring form limits the case for a high-scoring game. The strongest signal points to Under 3.5, as losing this bet requires at least four goals, while the recent results and finishing efficiency of both sides more often point to a total of two or three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Cavese victory, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five matches. During this period, Salernitana scored just 0.2 goals before the break and conceded 1.0, while Cavese also averaged only 0.2 goals scored but allowed opponents 0.4. After the break, Cavese shows greater attacking potential, averaging 0.8 goals compared with Salernitana’s 0.6, while the hosts won only 40% of second halves. The overall form across the last five matches also favours the visitors, who averaged 1.0 point per game compared with Salernitana’s 0.4 and lost 40% of their matches, versus 60% defeats for the hosts. Data from individual matches in this home-and-away configuration point to a clear Salernitana advantage, but the hosts’ weaker current form reduces the credibility of a scenario in which they lead at the break and go on to win, i.e. 1/1.