Salernitana vs Potenza Calcio: match statistics

Potenza Calcio opened the season with 3 wins from 3 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 2, while Salernitana are still waiting for their first victory after 2 draws and a defeat. The visitors are clearly more effective away from home, averaging 2 goals per match with an xG of 1.87, whereas the hosts average just 1 goal and an xG of 1.43 at home. Potenza also create more chances, averaging 16 shots and 6 on target compared with Salernitana’s 11 and 3.5, while also enjoying more possession (59% to 49%). Salernitana’s form is a concern, having scored 4 goals but conceded 8 in their last five matches without winning any of them. The hosts regularly find the net, but with an average of 1.5 goals conceded at home and no clean sheets, the more clinical visitors deserve to be given the better chances.

The BTTS signal is clear, as Potenza have recorded both teams scoring in 100% of their matches this season, while Salernitana have done so in 50%, compared with the league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both teams had BTTS in 80% of games, while Salernitana conceded an average of 1.6 goals and Potenza 1.2. The hosts have recently scored just 0.8 goals per match, but Potenza have not kept a clean sheet once this season and allow opponents an average xG of 1.69. The visitors are offensively reliable, averaging 1.8 goals in their last five matches, along with 1.64 xG and 6 shots on target per game, while Salernitana allow opponents 1.67 xG. The most likely scenario is therefore a goal for each team, although Salernitana’s weaker recent finishing limits confidence in the pick.

The quality-of-chances data points to an open game: Salernitana average 1.61 xG over their last five matches, while Potenza have allowed an average of 1.77 xG during this period. Potenza create 1.64 xG on average, whereas Salernitana allow opponents 1.67 xG, providing a solid basis to expect goals from both sides. Both teams have scored in 80% of their last five matches, with Potenza scoring 9 goals and Salernitana conceding 8. Over 1.5 goals has landed in all of Potenza’s matches to date, making Over 1.5 goals the most likely outcome at approximately 80% and the safest selection.

Potenza are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.0 points and won 60% of their games, while Salernitana have failed to win any match, collecting just 0.4 points per game. The hosts were behind at half-time in as many as 60% of their last five appearances, whereas Potenza led at the break in 40%; furthermore, Salernitana concede an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, compared with just 0.4 scored. The visitors’ advantage should continue after the interval, as they average 1.2 goals in the second half, while Salernitana average only 0.4 and lost 60% of such second halves. The HT/FT scenario in which Potenza lead at half-time and secure the final victory is therefore the strongest, although a half-time draw remains a realistic alternative, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last matches.