Samgurali vs Gagra: match statistics
Samgurali vs Gagra: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Samgurali played Gagra in Erovnuli Liga (Georgia). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Samgurali: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Gagra: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Samgurali scores 0.89 and concedes 1.89 goals per match. Gagra scores 1.00 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Samgurali 67%, Gagra 67%. Over 2.5: Samgurali 56%, Gagra 44%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Gagra has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.30. Samgurali: 10.1 shots per match, Gagra: 11.2.
Match halves
Samgurali: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.78. Gagra: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Samgurali: 76-90+ (5 goals). Gagra: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Erovnuli Liga: 2.24 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 1.80, BTTS 20%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis favors an away win for Gagra. Samgurali have 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 12; at home they concede on average 1.25 goals per match and have no clean sheets (0%). Gagra average 1.2 points per match over their last 5, have not recorded an away loss (0% defeats), score 1.25 goals away and concede only 0.75 per match. Samgurali post higher average xG at home (1.36 vs 1.19 xG for Gagra away) and register slightly more shots on target (4.0 vs 3.25), but the visitors convert chances better (13% conversion vs 10%) and have no issue scoring away (0% matches without a goal). Given the visitors’ superior defense (0.75 goals conceded away vs 1.25 at home), higher finishing efficiency and better recent points average (1.2 vs 0.6 over the last 5), I rate Gagra as more likely to win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend BTTS - Yes because both teams show clearly high BTTS rates: Samgurali 60% for the season and 80% in the last 5 matches, and Gagra 75% for the season and also 80% in the last 5. Samgurali concedes on average 1.8 goals this season (17 conceded) and as much as 2.4 in the last 5 matches, while Gagra scores on average 1.25 goals this season (9 scored) and 1.2 in the last 5 — meaning the home side regularly allows opponents to find the net. In terms of scoring opportunities Samgurali has xG_for 1.55 and xG_against 1.4, and Gagra has xG_for 1.19 and xG_against 1.74; both teams therefore create chances (1.55 and 1.19 xG) and are exposed to conceding (xG_against 1.4 and 1.74). Additionally Samgurali records 0% clean sheets this season, Gagra 25%, and average shots on target are 4.6 for Samgurali and 3.25 for Gagra, which supports the case for goals from both sides. Considering the seasonal 60%/75% BTTS, 80% in the last 5 for both teams, the high number of goals conceded by Samgurali (17) and the favorable xG, I assess BTTS probability at 78% vs 22% and pick 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals as the average of the home attack xG and the away defense xG: home (xG_for 1.55 vs xG_against_away 1.74) ≈ 1.65, away (xG_for 1.19 vs xG_against_home 1.40) ≈ 1.30, total ≈ 2.95. A Poisson model with λ=2.95 yields roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 56% for Over 2.5 and about 34% for Over 3.5, which I round to 80%, 56% and 34%. Seasonal indicators confirm a strong signal for Over 1.5: home team has 80% of matches >1.5, away 75%, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (>0.5). Over 2.5 is less clear — home 60% seasonally and 80% in last 5 matches, away 25% seasonally and 40% in last 5, hence a moderate 56% for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal Over 3.5: home 20%, away 0%), therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the best value.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Gagra is a clear favorite: they average 2.0 points per match versus 0.4 for Samgurali, win 50% of their games compared to 0% for the hosts, and concede only 0.75 goals per match versus 1.8 conceded by Samgurali. At half-time I expect a draw, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of this season’s matches and the visitors in 75%. Samgurali has the higher xG (1.55 vs 1.19) but a significantly lower shot conversion rate — 6% versus Gagra’s 13% — which translates into an average of 0.8 home goals per match versus 1.25 away goals and indicates Gagra’s advantage in finishing. Minute-by-minute stats show Gagra scores after the break (2 goals in 46–60 and 2 goals in 76–90), so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Gagra turnaround to win the match (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Samgurali | Gagra | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gagra is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Samgurali · 1.2 pts / match - Gagra
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gagra is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
0.89 goals / match - Samgurali · 1 goals / match - Gagra
Gagra is 42% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.89 goals / match - Samgurali · 1.33 goals / match - Gagra
Samgurali scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Gagra keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
Gagra scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Samgurali keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Samgurali
Over / Under - Gagra
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gagra is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.56 pts / match - Samgurali · 0.67 pts / match - Gagra
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Samgurali - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Gagra - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Samgurali
Gagra
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Erovnuli Liga).
Teams vs league
| Samgurali | Liga | Gagra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.78 | 2.24 | • 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 51% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 47% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 32% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 67% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Samgurali 2 - 1 - 2 Gagra. Average goals 1.80, both teams scored in 20% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Samgurali vs Gagra?
The Erovnuli Liga match finished Samgurali 2:0 Gagra. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Samgurali and Gagra?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Samgurali won 2, Gagra won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 20% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Samgurali vs Gagra?
Samgurali score 0.89 goals per game on average and Gagra 1.00. The Erovnuli Liga average is 2.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Samgurali's matches and 67% of Gagra's.
What form are Samgurali and Gagra in?
Over the last 5 games Samgurali have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Gagra 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Samgurali vs Gagra?
The statistical background for Samgurali vs Gagra — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.