Samgurali vs Rustavi: match statistics
Samgurali vs Rustavi: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Samgurali played Rustavi in Erovnuli Liga (Georgia). The match was played on 3 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Samgurali: 1-2-1, 1.25 points/match. Rustavi: 1-1-1, 1.33 points/match.
Goal statistics
Samgurali scores 0.75 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Rustavi scores 0.67 and concedes 0.67. League average: 1.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Samgurali 50%, Rustavi 33%. Over 2.5: Samgurali 25%, Rustavi 33%. League level: BTTS 35%, Over 2.5 29%.
xG, shots and style
Rustavi has higher xG: 1.33 vs 1.21. Samgurali: 8.5 shots per match, Rustavi: 11.0.
Match halves
Samgurali: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50. Rustavi: half-time lead 67%, second-half goals 0.00.
Goals by minute
Samgurali: 31-45+ (1 goals). Rustavi: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Erovnuli Liga: 1.59 goals per match, BTTS 35%, Over 2.5 29%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Both teams show a strong draw tendency: Samgurali has 100% draws at home (2 draws), and Rustavi has 100% draws away (1 draw), which increases the likelihood of a shared point. The hosts control the game (62% average possession vs 43% for the visitors), average 6 shots and 3 on target per home match, have 1.26 xG and average 1.00 goal per match and 0% scoreless home matches. Rustavi generates many shots on the road (9 average, 2 on target) but registers 0.00 average away goals and 100% away matches without a goal, despite scoring 7 goals in the last 5 matches overall, indicating finishing issues away from home. Defensively, Samgurali concedes 0.73 xG against at home and 1.00 average goals conceded, while Rustavi has higher xG against on the road (1.46), giving the hosts a slight advantage in the quality of created and limited chances. As a result the most likely outcome is a draw, with a lower probability of a home win due to the hosts' advantage in possession and xG.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis leans toward BTTS - No due to Rustavi’s seasonal 100% clean sheets and a low league BTTS frequency of 35%, indicating matches in this league often finish without both teams scoring. Samgurali posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 50%, xG_for 1.48, averaging 5 shots on target and 12 shots per game, so the home side does create chances (1.48 xG versus 1.46 xG conceded by Rustavi). However, Rustavi records 0% seasonal BTTS and has kept a clean sheet in 100% of matches, which historically strongly reduces the probability of a Goal/Goal outcome. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 40% of cases: Samgurali scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) and conceded 8 (1.6), while Rustavi scored 7 (1.4) and conceded 4 (0.8), giving mixed signals but a defensive advantage to Rustavi. In summary, although Samgurali shows higher xG and more shots, dominant seasonal signals (Rustavi 100% clean sheets, seasonal BTTS 0% and league 88% clean sheets) lead me to rate 65% on No and 35% on Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based calculations yield 1.47 for Samgurali (xG_for 1.48 vs xG_against away 1.46) and 1.21 for Rustavi (xG_for 1.06 vs xG_against home 1.36), totaling 2.68 goals. Samgurali creates more chances: on average 12 shots and 5 on target per match versus 9 and 2 for Rustavi, and Samgurali’s conversion is 8% versus 0% for the visitors, which increases the hosts’ scoring probability. In the last 5 matches Rustavi scored 7 goals (1.4 avg) and Samgurali 3 goals (0.6 avg), showing the visitors also have goal-scoring capability despite seasonal stat discrepancies. A Poisson model with λ=2.68 gives roughly a 75% chance for Over 1.5, about 50% for Over 2.5 and about 28% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is an Over 1.5 bet. Note that the league-wide percentage of matches over 2.5 is 28%, which explains why Over 2.5 remains only an equally plausible scenario.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Samgurali led at the break in 2 of their 2 matches (100% of cases), averaging 1.0 goal before half-time and collecting 6 points at the break (an average of 3.0 points per match at half-time), indicating strong first-half control. Offensively the hosts generate 1.48 xG per match versus Rustavi’s 1.06 xG, record an average of 5 shots on target compared to 2 for the visitors, and have an 8.0% conversion rate versus 0.0% for Rustavi, so they create and convert more chances. Rustavi do not score on average by half-time (0.0) and were level at the break in 100% of cases, while the league features a high clean sheet rate (88%), which favors low-scoring affairs and the maintenance of the hosts’ lead. Therefore the most likely scenario is Samgurali leading at half-time and the hosts winning after full-time (HT/FT 1/1), estimated at around 60% when accounting for the xG advantage, 5 vs 2 shots on target and 100% half-time leads.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Samgurali | Rustavi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rustavi is 6% better for: last-5 form.
1.25 pts / match - Samgurali · 1.33 pts / match - Rustavi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Samgurali is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
0.75 goals / match - Samgurali · 0.67 goals / match - Rustavi
Rustavi is 87% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Samgurali · 0.67 goals / match - Rustavi
Samgurali scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Rustavi keeps a clean sheet in 67% (2 of 3 matches).
Rustavi scores in 67% of matches (2 of 3 matches), while Samgurali keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Samgurali
Over / Under - Rustavi
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rustavi is 133% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Samgurali · 2.33 pts / match - Rustavi
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Samgurali - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Rustavi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 67% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 75% |
| No goal | 75% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Average goals in match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 goal | 67% | 33% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 33% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 67% |
| No goal | 33% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (1 goal). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Samgurali
Rustavi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Erovnuli Liga).
Teams vs league
| Samgurali | Liga | Rustavi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.00 | 1.59 | ▼ 1.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 35% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 29% | ▲ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 44% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 53% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 59% | ▼ 33% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Samgurali vs Rustavi?
The Erovnuli Liga match finished Samgurali 2:1 Rustavi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Samgurali vs Rustavi?
Samgurali score 0.75 goals per game on average and Rustavi 0.67. The Erovnuli Liga average is 1.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 29% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Samgurali's matches and 33% of Rustavi's.
What form are Samgurali and Rustavi in?
Over the last 5 games Samgurali have a 1-2-1 record (1.25 points per game) and Rustavi 1-1-1 (1.33 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Samgurali vs Rustavi?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Samgurali vs Rustavi: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.