Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia: match statistics

Sampdoria have a slightly more stable run of form: they have picked up 5 points from their last five matches, recording 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, while Juve Stabia have collected 4 points despite suffering three losses. The hosts have conceded 5 goals during this period, compared with 9 for the visitors, highlighting Juve Stabia’s significantly greater defensive organisation issues. Away from home, Juve Stabia have lost their only match so far, failing to score despite averaging 13 shots and 4 shots on target, while generating an xG of 1.40. Sampdoria have also lacked cutting edge, scoring just 4 goals in their last five games; however, home advantage and the opponent’s weaker defence give them a slight edge. A draw remains a realistic outcome due to the hosts’ limited attacking output, but a narrow Sampdoria victory is the most likely result.

Sampdoria have averaged just 0.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, with an xG of 0.92, indicating limited attacking potential. Juve Stabia averaged 1.0 goal per game during this period with an xG of 1.19, while BTTS landed in as many as 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Sampdoria. The hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal, but Juve Stabia have clear defensive issues, averaging 1.8 goals conceded and an xG against of 1.60. Despite the visitors’ defensive weakness, Sampdoria’s low chance creation and the combined average of under two goals per team across the last five matches slightly support the view that at least one team will fail to score. Therefore, the BTTS - No pick is not stronger than the scenario in which one side keeps a clean sheet.

In their last five matches, Sampdoria averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, pointing to games with a moderate scoring tempo. Juve Stabia averaged 1.0 goal scored, but their defence allowed 1.8 goals, giving the hosts a solid basis to exceed one goal scored. At the same time, Sampdoria’s average xG is 0.92, compared with 1.19 for Juve Stabia, with a combined projected total of 2.18 goals—below the league average of 2.3. Although at least 3 goals were scored in 60% of Juve Stabia’s recent matches, Sampdoria recorded this outcome in only 20% of games, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest signal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Juve Stabia victory at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and never led. Sampdoria averaged only 0.6 goals before half-time during this period, while Juve Stabia failed to score in any first half, which supports a cautious opening. After the interval, Juve Stabia averaged 1.0 goals per match, compared with just 0.2 for Sampdoria, so the visitors’ advantage should grow towards the end. The hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goals per game, while Juve Stabia’s defence did allow opponents 1.8 goals on average; however, Sampdoria have been in poor offensive form, averaging 0.8 goals across their last five matches. Additionally, Juve Stabia lost 60% of their last five matches, making the X/2 pick moderately risky, but it best reflects the visitors’ clearly superior effectiveness after half-time.