San Antonio vs Sacramento Republic: match statistics
San Antonio vs Sacramento Republic: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
San Antonio played Sacramento Republic in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 24 May 2026. Venue: Toyota Field. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
San Antonio: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Sacramento Republic: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
San Antonio scores 1.20 and concedes 0.90 goals per match. Sacramento Republic scores 1.38 and concedes 0.88. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: San Antonio 40%, Sacramento Republic 63%. Over 2.5: San Antonio 30%, Sacramento Republic 25%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Sacramento Republic has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.42. San Antonio: 13.1 shots per match, Sacramento Republic: 11.1.
Match halves
San Antonio: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.60. Sacramento Republic: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
San Antonio: 31-45+ (3 goals). Sacramento Republic: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
San Antonio looks strong at home — 60% home win rate and no home losses (0% loss rate), scoring on average 1.6 goals per game with xG 1.7 and averaging 5 shots on target per game. Sacramento are less effective away — 0% wins and 100% draws on the road, averaging only 0.67 goals per game with xG 1.12 and 2.33 shots on target. Both teams are in good form: San Antonio in their last 5 matches have 2 wins and 3 draws (1.8 points per game) and 8 goals scored, while Sacramento have 3 wins and 2 draws (2.2 points per game) and 9 goals, indicating higher overall efficiency from the visitors. Still, San Antonio’s superiority in shot volume (15.2 vs 9), higher conversion rate (11% vs 7%) and 60% clean sheets at home versus 33% for the visitors suggest greater chances for the hosts. On this basis I assign San Antonio a 58% probability of victory, draw 30% and an away win for Sacramento 12%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have high BTTS rates this season: San Antonio 60% and Sacramento 67%, above the league average of 56%, indicating a tendency for Goal/Goal matches. San Antonio scores 1.8 goals per game with xG 1.61 while conceding 1.0, whereas Sacramento has season xG 1.12 and concedes 1.01, so expected goals point to goals from both sides. San Antonio averages 4.4 shots on target with 15% conversion, and Sacramento 2.33 shots on target with 7% conversion, which increases the chance the hosts will capitalize on chances, while Sacramento—despite a low season average of 0.67 goals—has improved (1.8 goals in the last 5 matches). Clean sheet percentages are 40% for San Antonio and 33% for Sacramento, and season goal tallies (San Antonio 12 scored/9 conceded; Sacramento 11/7) do not indicate both defenses shutting games down. Based on this I assess BTTS - Yes probability at 70% versus 30% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.31 goals for San Antonio (xG for 1.61 vs xG against Sacramento 1.01) and 1.24 for Sacramento (xG for 1.12 vs xG against San Antonio 1.35), totaling 2.55 expected goals. San Antonio averages 1.8 goals per match with 12.4 shots and 4.4 on target and a 15% conversion rate, while Sacramento has 0.67 goals, 9.0 shots and only a 7% conversion, indicating a home advantage in chance conversion. Over/Under stats confirm this trend: San Antonio has 100% of matches over 1.5 this season, Sacramento 67%, whereas at the 2.5 line only 40% of homes and 0% of away matches finished over 2.5, and at 3.5 it's 20% and 0% respectively. Considering the expected 2.55 goals and the large efficiency differences, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — I assess its probability at about 90% (Under 10%); Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (~56% vs 44%); Over 3.5 is unlikely (~21% vs 79%). Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the best line: the hosts have 100% season matches over 1.5 and combined xG 2.55, which provides the greatest statistical edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
San Antonio are favorites for the final result: they average 1.8 goals per match versus Sacramento’s 0.67, have a higher xG (1.61 vs 1.12) and more shots on target (4.4 vs 2.33), which supports their victory. At half-time the statistics are balanced (both teams have an AVGHT of 1.0), and San Antonio score on average 0.4 goals HT versus Sacramento’s 0.33, increasing the likelihood of a draw at the 45-minute mark. In the last 5 matches San Antonio led at the break in 60% of games (3/5), while Sacramento did so in only 20% (1/5); however, the hosts are particularly strong after the interval: 1.4 second-half goals on average and scoring in 80% of matches after the break versus 0.33 and 33% for Sacramento. Considering the xG advantage, superior shot numbers and dominance in second halves, the most likely HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a San Antonio win (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| San Antonio | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sacramento Republic is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - San Antonio · 1.6 pts / match - Sacramento Republic
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sacramento Republic is 15% better for: goals scored per match.
1.2 goals / match - San Antonio · 1.38 goals / match - Sacramento Republic
San Antonio scores in 60% of matches (6 of 10 matches), while Sacramento Republic keeps a clean sheet in 38% (3 of 8 matches).
Sacramento Republic scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while San Antonio keeps a clean sheet in 50% (5 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - San Antonio
Over / Under - Sacramento Republic
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
San Antonio is 93% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.7 pts / match - San Antonio · 0.88 pts / match - Sacramento Republic
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
San Antonio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sacramento Republic - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
San Antonio
Sacramento Republic
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| San Antonio | Liga | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.10 | 2.76 | ▼ 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 57% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 30% | 56% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 27% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 60% | 69% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 80% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): San Antonio 1 - 1 - 2 Sacramento Republic. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of San Antonio vs Sacramento Republic?
The USL Championship match finished San Antonio 2:1 Sacramento Republic. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between San Antonio and Sacramento Republic?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches San Antonio won 1, Sacramento Republic won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before San Antonio vs Sacramento Republic?
San Antonio score 1.20 goals per game on average and Sacramento Republic 1.38. The USL Championship average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 40% of San Antonio's matches and 63% of Sacramento Republic's.
What form are San Antonio and Sacramento Republic in?
Over the last 5 games San Antonio have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Sacramento Republic 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for San Antonio vs Sacramento Republic?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.