San Antonio vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: match statistics

Tampa Bay Rowdies top the table and have recorded 15 wins and just 4 defeats throughout the season, while San Antonio have won 9 of their 25 matches. The visitors are particularly solid away from home: they win 54% of their matches, concede just 0.69 goals on average, and keep a clean sheet in 54% of their outings. San Antonio do create more quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.62 compared with their opponents’ 1.55, but they score only 1.17 goals per game and fail to score in 42% of their home matches. The hosts’ recent form is far from convincing, having scored just 3 goals and secured only one win in their last five matches, while Rowdies have scored 7 times during the same period. The defensive class gap and the visitors’ significantly higher conversion rate—10% versus 8%—support a narrow away victory.

The signal for BTTS - No is clear, as both teams have recorded this outcome infrequently during the season: San Antonio in 42% of matches and Tampa Bay Rowdies in 38%, compared with the league average of 54%. Over their last five matches, the figures have fallen further to 40% for the hosts and just 20% for the visitors, while San Antonio have scored only 3 goals during this period, averaging 0.6 per match. The defenses regularly restrict their opponents, as confirmed by clean-sheet rates of 50% for the hosts and 54% for the visitors, as well as averages of just 0.6 and 0.8 goals conceded respectively in their last five appearances. Although the hosts produce a seasonally high xG of 1.95, Tampa Bay concede only 0.69 goals per match on average, making the outcome in which at least one team fails to score the more likely scenario.

The latest form of both teams points to a clear decline in scoring tempo: San Antonio have scored 3 goals and conceded 3 in their last five matches, while Tampa Bay have scored 7 and conceded just 4. The hosts are currently averaging only 0.6 goals per match, despite their season average of 2.33, which significantly reduces the relevance of high-scoring results from the campaign as a whole. The defenses also look stable in terms of qualitative data, with both teams allowing xG of 1.16 in their last five appearances. Historically, Tampa Bay recorded fewer than 3.5 goals in 85% of matches, while the combined profile of both teams has finished below this line far more often than it has exceeded four goals. The projected total of 2.12 goals gives the safest edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and full-time, as San Antonio went into the break level in 4 of its last 5 matches, scoring just 0.2 goals per game before half-time during that period. Tampa Bay concede an average of only 0.23 goals in first halves across the season and have kept a clean sheet at the break in 77% of matches, limiting the hosts’ chances of taking an early lead. Both teams also have solid full-match defensive metrics: San Antonio keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while Tampa Bay do so in 54%. Although the hosts have greater season-long attacking potential, averaging 2.33 goals per game compared with the visitors’ 1.31, their recent run has produced only 0.6 goals per match and as many as 60% draws. Tampa Bay are currently more consistent in terms of results, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five matches, making a balanced scenario that remains level until the final whistle more likely than a clear victory for either side.