San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance: match statistics
San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
San Jose Earthquakes II played Tacoma Defiance in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 12 July 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
San Jose Earthquakes II: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Tacoma Defiance: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
San Jose Earthquakes II scores 2.47 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. Tacoma Defiance scores 1.06 and concedes 1.41. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: San Jose Earthquakes II 73%, Tacoma Defiance 41%. Over 2.5: San Jose Earthquakes II 73%, Tacoma Defiance 53%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
San Jose Earthquakes II has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.37. San Jose Earthquakes II: 13.1 shots per match, Tacoma Defiance: 11.6.
Match halves
San Jose Earthquakes II: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 1.07. Tacoma Defiance: half-time lead 12%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
San Jose Earthquakes II: 31-45+ (10 goals). Tacoma Defiance: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-2. Average goals 3.25, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
San Jose Earthquakes II are the clear favorites: at home they score an average of 3.33 goals per game with 5.67 shots on target and a conversion rate of 27%. Their home defense concedes just 0.67 goals per game on average and they keep a clean sheet in 33% of matches, while Tacoma Defiance concede 2.0 goals per away match and keep a clean sheet in only 14% of games. The difference in quality of chances is also visible in xG: San Jose averages 1.5 xG at home versus 1.33 xG for the visitors, yet the hosts actually convert those chances into 3.33 goals, while Tacoma manage only 1.0 goals on the road. Form reinforces the advantage – San Jose earns 2.0 points per game over the last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), Tacoma just 1.4 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses); additionally the visitors failed to score in 43% of away fixtures versus 17% for the hosts. Considering the higher conversion rate (27% vs 9%), superior home goal difference (+16 vs -7 away) and markedly better defensive efficiency, I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I forecast BTTS - Yes at 60% vs No at 40%. San Jose has BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and scores an average of 3.2 goals per game (16 goals in 5), while Tacoma has BTTS in 40% of their last 5 and averages 1.0 goals (5 in 5). Tacoma concedes 2.0 goals per game this season and keeps only 14% clean sheets, whereas San Jose concedes 1.0 with 30% clean sheets — this suggests both sides have high chances to score. Additionally, xG shows 1.39 for San Jose and 1.58 xG against Tacoma, and San Jose averages 4.5 shots on target versus Tacoma’s 3.14, which supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Even though the teams’ season BTTS rates are relatively low (40% and 43%), San Jose’s form edge and a league BTTS of 62% lead me to pick BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG- and match-average-based model yields expected goals of 1.49 for San Jose (attacking xG 1.39 and xG conceded vs Tacoma 1.58) and 1.39 for Tacoma (attacking xG 1.33 and xG conceded vs San Jose 1.46), totaling 2.88 goals. San Jose have scored 16 goals in their last 5 matches (3.2 per game) and have had 100% of games over 2.5 goals, while Tacoma have 71% of season games over 2.5 and concede on average 2.0 goals per match. With a Poisson distribution lambda=2.88 the probability of Over 1.5 is ~78%, Over 2.5 ~55%, and Over 3.5 ~33%. Additionally both teams have a high share of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5: 90% San Jose vs 100% Tacoma) and Tacoma keep clean sheets only 14% of the time, supporting a higher-goal outcome. As a result the strongest and safest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5 (78% vs 22% for Under), based on the combined xG 2.88, San Jose form (3.2 average in last 5) and Tacoma’s weak defense (2.0 goals conceded).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
In the last five matches San Jose led at the break in 60% of games and averaged 1.8 first-half goals, whereas Tacoma managed only 0.2 first-half goals across those five matches. The home side have averaged 3.2 goals per game in their last five fixtures compared to 1.0 for the visitors, with 4.5 shots on target versus 3.14 for opponents and an xG of 1.39 against 1.33, indicating higher quality chances. Tacoma concede an average of 2.0 goals per game this season and have only a 14% win rate, so the likelihood of a turnaround is limited. Additionally, when San Jose led at half-time they held the lead through full-time in 80% of cases, although season-long the hosts have led at the break in 20% of matches (20% seasonally vs 60% in the last five), therefore the lead-at-the-break and full-time win scenario for the home side is the strongest (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| San Jose Earthquakes II | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.49 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
San Jose Earthquakes II is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - San Jose Earthquakes II · 1.4 pts / match - Tacoma Defiance
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
San Jose Earthquakes II is 133% better for: goals scored per match.
2.47 goals / match - San Jose Earthquakes II · 1.06 goals / match - Tacoma Defiance
San Jose Earthquakes II is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - San Jose Earthquakes II · 1.41 goals / match - Tacoma Defiance
San Jose Earthquakes II scores in 87% of matches (13 of 15 matches), while Tacoma Defiance keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
Tacoma Defiance scores in 59% of matches (10 of 17 matches), while San Jose Earthquakes II keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - San Jose Earthquakes II
Over / Under - Tacoma Defiance
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
San Jose Earthquakes II is 127% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.13 pts / match - San Jose Earthquakes II · 0.94 pts / match - Tacoma Defiance
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
San Jose Earthquakes II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 53%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tacoma Defiance - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 12% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
San Jose Earthquakes II
Tacoma Defiance
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| San Jose Earthquakes II | Liga | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.67 | 3.24 | ▼ 2.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 73% | 61% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 73% | 66% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 22% | ▲ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 87% | 75% | ▼ 53% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 84% | ▼ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): San Jose Earthquakes II 0 - 2 - 2 Tacoma Defiance. Average goals 3.25, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance?
The MLS Next Pro match finished San Jose Earthquakes II 0:1 Tacoma Defiance. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between San Jose Earthquakes II and Tacoma Defiance?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches San Jose Earthquakes II won 0, Tacoma Defiance won 2 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance?
San Jose Earthquakes II score 2.47 goals per game on average and Tacoma Defiance 1.06. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 73% of San Jose Earthquakes II's matches and 41% of Tacoma Defiance's.
What form are San Jose Earthquakes II and Tacoma Defiance in?
Over the last 5 games San Jose Earthquakes II have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Tacoma Defiance 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.