San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza: match statistics
San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
San Lorenzo played Gimnasia Mendoza in Primera División (Argentina). The match was played on 28 July 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
San Lorenzo: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Gimnasia Mendoza: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
San Lorenzo scores 0.94 and concedes 0.94 goals per match. Gimnasia Mendoza scores 0.88 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.08 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: San Lorenzo 41%, Gimnasia Mendoza 50%. Over 2.5: San Lorenzo 24%, Gimnasia Mendoza 38%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
Gimnasia Mendoza has higher xG: 1.26 vs 1.24. San Lorenzo: 10.1 shots per match, Gimnasia Mendoza: 10.9.
Match halves
San Lorenzo: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.71. Gimnasia Mendoza: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.38.
Goals by minute
San Lorenzo: 76-90+ (6 goals). Gimnasia Mendoza: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.08 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
San Lorenzo holds a clear advantage in chance creation and quality of play at home: home xG 1.62 vs 0.95 for Gimnasia, with average shots 13.88 vs 7.63 and shots on target 4.63 vs 3.13. The hosts score 1.25 goals per home match on average, while the visitors average just 0.63 goals away, and the share of goalless matches is 13% for San Lorenzo vs 38% for Gimnasia. Defensively San Lorenzo concedes 1.38 goals per match with an opponent xG of 1.41, whereas the visitors concede 1.75 goals away with opponent xG 1.90, and clean sheet rate is 50% vs 25% in favor of the hosts. Although Gimnasia has a better points run in the last 5 matches (1.6 pts/match vs 0.8 pts/match for San Lorenzo), the home advantage in xG, chance volume and the lower FTS (13% vs 38%) support a San Lorenzo win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have 50% BTTS this season and both sides record 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches, which is a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. San Lorenzo at home averages 1.13 goals and generates xG 1.57 with 14.25 shots (4.5 on target), while Gimnasia as the away team averages 0.63 goals and xG 0.95 for the season, but concedes 1.75 goals and has xG against 1.90 — this indicates the hosts are likely to score and the visitors’ defense is vulnerable. Gimnasia, however, averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded in their last 5 matches, and both teams have only 25% clean sheets this season (versus the league 68%), which increases the chance of goals from both sides. Considering the 60% BTTS in recent matches, the xG disparity (1.57 vs 1.90) and the low 25% clean sheets, I assign a 65% probability to BTTS 'Yes' and 35% to 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
After analyzing the statistics I obtain expected xG of 1.43 for San Lorenzo and 0.85 for Gimnasia Mendoza, giving a total of 2.28 goals. Home attacking xG is 1.57 versus 0.95 for the visitors, while xG against the visitors is high (1.90), so in the model I averaged xG and actual goals per game (1.13 for San Lorenzo and 0.63 for Gimnasia) and derived 1.43/0.85. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.28 yields roughly a 66% probability of Over 1.5 goals, ~40% for Over 2.5 and only ~20% for 4+ goals, which aligns with seasonal indicators (seasonOver25 38% for both teams, seasonOver35 13% for the home side and 25% for the visitors). Additionally, the high frequency of matches under 3.5 (seasonUnder35 87% for San Lorenzo and 75% for Gimnasia) along with the visitors’ low average shots (7.63) and 8% conversion limit the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Based on this, I recommend playing Under 3.5 as the strongest and most probable scenario.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with San Lorenzo winning the match (X/1): both teams were level at the break in 63% of their games, and San Lorenzo wins 50% of matches compared to Gimnasia Mendoza’s 13%. In second halves San Lorenzo averages 0.63 goals and has accumulated 14 points (1.75 per match), while Gimnasia has only 0.13 goals and 6 points (0.75 per match), clearly showing the home side’s advantage after the interval. Additionally, San Lorenzo’s xG is 1.57 versus the visitors’ 0.95, and the hosts average 14.25 shots (4.5 on target) compared to Gimnasia’s 7.63 (3.13 on target), with an identical conversion rate of 8%, so the hosts create more opportunities. Over the season San Lorenzo averages 1.63 points per game versus Gimnasia’s 0.75, therefore I assign the highest probability to X/1, a moderate probability to X/X and low chances for the visitors to lead at the break or win.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| San Lorenzo | Gimnasia Mendoza | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gimnasia Mendoza is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - San Lorenzo · 2 pts / match - Gimnasia Mendoza
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
San Lorenzo is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
0.94 goals / match - San Lorenzo · 0.88 goals / match - Gimnasia Mendoza
San Lorenzo is 47% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.94 goals / match - San Lorenzo · 1.38 goals / match - Gimnasia Mendoza
San Lorenzo scores in 71% of matches (12 of 17 matches), while Gimnasia Mendoza keeps a clean sheet in 25% (4 of 16 matches).
Gimnasia Mendoza scores in 69% of matches (11 of 16 matches), while San Lorenzo keeps a clean sheet in 53% (9 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - San Lorenzo
Over / Under - Gimnasia Mendoza
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
San Lorenzo is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.18 pts / match - San Lorenzo · 1 pts / match - Gimnasia Mendoza
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
San Lorenzo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Gimnasia Mendoza - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
San Lorenzo
Gimnasia Mendoza
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| San Lorenzo | Liga | Gimnasia Mendoza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.88 | 2.08 | ▲ 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 45% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 24% | 34% | ▲ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 53% | 34% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 61% | ▲ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 65% | 71% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: San Lorenzo 1 - 0 - 0 Gimnasia Mendoza. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The Primera División match finished San Lorenzo 1:0 Gimnasia Mendoza. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
San Lorenzo score 0.94 goals per game on average and Gimnasia Mendoza 0.88. The Primera División average is 2.08 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 41% of San Lorenzo's matches and 50% of Gimnasia Mendoza's.
What form are San Lorenzo and Gimnasia Mendoza in?
Over the last 5 games San Lorenzo have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Gimnasia Mendoza 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.