San Lorenzo vs Independiente: match statistics
San Lorenzo vs Independiente: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
San Lorenzo played Independiente in Primera División (Argentina). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
San Lorenzo: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Independiente: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
San Lorenzo scores 0.87 and concedes 0.80 goals per match. Independiente scores 1.47 and concedes 1.27. League average: 2.05 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: San Lorenzo 33%, Independiente 67%. Over 2.5: San Lorenzo 13%, Independiente 33%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
Independiente has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.18. San Lorenzo: 9.5 shots per match, Independiente: 13.1.
Match halves
San Lorenzo: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.67. Independiente: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.87.
Goals by minute
San Lorenzo: 76-90+ (5 goals). Independiente: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.05 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
San Lorenzo has scored 13 and conceded 12 goals this season; at home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per match and keep a clean sheet in 57% of home games, indicating a solid home defence. Independiente have 22 goals this season and 9 in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 points per game over those five, but on the road they score only 1.00 goal per match and record just 14% wins and 14% clean sheets away from home. San Lorenzo generate higher xG at home (1.49) and more shots on target per match (4.29) than Independiente do away (xG 1.34 and 3.14 shots on target), which suggests better quality chances for the hosts. In the last five fixtures San Lorenzo have conceded just 1 goal while Independiente have conceded 6, further underlining the hosts’ defensive edge. Considering San Lorenzo’s superior defensive efficiency at home and Independiente’s weaker away form, I predict a home win; probabilities: 50% home, 30% draw, 20% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have a high BTTS level this season: San Lorenzo 63% and Independiente 71%, averaging around 67%, which is a strong signal for 'both to score'. xG confirms the offensive potential of both teams — San Lorenzo has xG_for 1.64 against opponents' xG_against 1.34, and Independiente has xG_for 1.34 against hosts' xG_against 0.98 (differences of about +0.30 and +0.36). A counterargument is the hosts' form in the last 5 matches: San Lorenzo has only 20% BTTS, scores on average 0.8 goals and concedes 0.2 per match, while Independiente in the last 5 has 60% BTTS and scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2 goals per match. Additionally, San Lorenzo attempts more shots overall (15.25 vs 10.71) and more shots on target (4.75 vs 3.14), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering the high seasonal BTTS 63%/71%, positive xG and shooting activity, I recommend BTTS = 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model combining xG and raw goals averages yields expected goals of 1.57 for San Lorenzo and 1.11 for Independiente (total 2.68). Seasonally San Lorenzo at home records 88% of matches over 1.5 goals, Independiente away 86%, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (no 0:0), which strongly supports Over 1.5; I assign this selection 88%. For the 2.5 line historical rates are 38% (home) and 29% (away), league 34%, but the model’s expected 2.68 goals suggests nearly equal chances of 3+ goals — probabilistically I give Over 2.5 52%. Over 3.5 looks unlikely: seasonal 25%/14% and a Poisson model with lambda≈2.68 yield about a 28% probability of 4+ goals, hence Under 3.5 72%. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side 'over'), because the high combined expected goals of 2.68, the large share of matches over 1.5 (88%/86%), and the fact that in 63% (home) and 71% (away) of matches both teams scored, together form a coherent case to play Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the X/1 scenario (draw at half-time, San Lorenzo victory), because the hosts were level at the break in 5 of 8 cases (63%) and simultaneously show strong second halves: an average of 1.25 goals in the second half and 63% second-half wins. San Lorenzo also have a higher xG of 1.64 versus Independiente’s 1.34, average 15.25 shots versus 10.71 and 4.75 shots on target versus 3.14, which indicates an advantage in chance creation and the ability to effect a turnaround after the break. Seasonally the hosts win 50% of matches versus only 14% for the away side, and average goals scored are 1.88 vs 1.00, which supports a San Lorenzo full-time triumph. However, the risk related to the first half must be considered: in the last 5 matches Independiente scored 9 goals in the first half versus 3 for the hosts (9 vs 3), so the x/x (draw/draw) variant also carries significant probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| San Lorenzo | Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
San Lorenzo is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - San Lorenzo · 1.4 pts / match - Independiente
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Independiente is 69% better for: goals scored per match.
0.87 goals / match - San Lorenzo · 1.47 goals / match - Independiente
San Lorenzo is 59% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.8 goals / match - San Lorenzo · 1.27 goals / match - Independiente
San Lorenzo scores in 67% of matches (10 of 15 matches), while Independiente keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).
Independiente scores in 93% of matches (14 of 15 matches), while San Lorenzo keeps a clean sheet in 60% (9 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - San Lorenzo
Over / Under - Independiente
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
San Lorenzo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Independiente - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
San Lorenzo
Independiente
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| San Lorenzo | Liga | Independiente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.67 | 2.05 | ▲ 2.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 45% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 13% | 34% | • 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 60% | 35% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 47% | 60% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 70% | ▲ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): San Lorenzo 1 - 1 - 1 Independiente. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of San Lorenzo vs Independiente?
The Primera División match finished San Lorenzo 1:2 Independiente. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between San Lorenzo and Independiente?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches San Lorenzo won 1, Independiente won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before San Lorenzo vs Independiente?
San Lorenzo score 0.87 goals per game on average and Independiente 1.47. The Primera División average is 2.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 33% of San Lorenzo's matches and 67% of Independiente's.
What form are San Lorenzo and Independiente in?
Over the last 5 games San Lorenzo have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Independiente 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for San Lorenzo vs Independiente?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for San Lorenzo vs Independiente: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.