San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste: match statistics
San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
San Miguel played Ferro Carril Oeste in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 11 July 2026. Venue: Estadio Malvinas Argentinas. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
San Miguel: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match. Ferro Carril Oeste: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
San Miguel scores 0.89 and concedes 1.05 goals per match. Ferro Carril Oeste scores 1.16 and concedes 0.74. League average: 1.87 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: San Miguel 47%, Ferro Carril Oeste 42%. Over 2.5: San Miguel 26%, Ferro Carril Oeste 32%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 30%.
xG, shots and style
Ferro Carril Oeste has higher xG: 1.51 vs 1.35. San Miguel: 10.1 shots per match, Ferro Carril Oeste: 13.2.
Match halves
San Miguel: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.53. Ferro Carril Oeste: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
San Miguel: 46-60 (4 goals). Ferro Carril Oeste: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.87 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 30%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-0. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ferro Carril Oeste holds a clear seasonal and form advantage: they have won 11 of 19 matches this season versus San Miguel’s 5 wins, and in the last 5 fixtures the visitors recorded 4 wins and 1 draw while the hosts have 1 win and 4 draws. Offensively Ferro scored 22 goals this season (7 in the last 5) compared to San Miguel’s 17 (6 in the last 5), with last-5 points averages of 2.6 for Ferro and 1.4 for San Miguel. The visitors are also more efficient with shots: on average 3.6 shots on target and a 12% conversion rate away versus 3.22 shots on target and an 8% conversion rate for the hosts at home. Defensively Ferro performs better — conceding on average 0.6 goals away and keeping clean sheets in 60% of matches, while San Miguel concedes 0.78 goals at home and has 44% clean sheets. Although San Miguel generates higher xG at home (1.7 versus 1.3 xG for Ferro away), the advantage in results, efficiency and form leads me to predict an away victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
San Miguel at home scores on average 1.0 goals per match (xG 1.76) and concedes 0.89 goals season-to-date, while Ferro away scores 1.3 goals (xG 1.3) and concedes only 0.6 goals for the season. Ferro has a high clean sheet rate of 60% away versus San Miguel’s 22% at home, but their xG against of 1.16 is significantly higher than the actual 0.6 goals conceded, suggesting potential regression. Both teams have BTTS at 60% in their last 5 matches; in that period San Miguel scored 6 and conceded 4, Ferro scored 7 and conceded 3, indicating both sides are regularly finding the net recently. Counters to this are the league context: average goals 1.87 per match, league BTTS level 40% and a very high clean sheet rate of 77%, which lowers the overall BTTS probability. Considering San Miguel’s strong home xG (1.76), Ferro’s elevated xG against (1.16) and the recent 60% BTTS for both teams, I forecast BTTS - Yes at 62% versus 38% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for San Miguel and 1.06 for Ferro, totaling 2.52, which under a Poisson distribution corresponds to roughly a 72% probability of Over 1.5. San Miguel averages 1.76 xG per match while Ferro concedes 1.16 xG on average, justifying the home side’s 1.46 expected goals; Ferro posts 1.30 xG while San Miguel allows 0.82 xG on average, hence 1.06 for the visitors. Seasonal metrics show Over 2.5 is less frequent (33% for San Miguel, 30% for Ferro and 30% in the league), so the 2.5 line is less convincing (the model assigns it about a 46% probability). Over 3.5 is unlikely according to season rates (0–10%) and the model (~25%), therefore the strongest signal from the data remains Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Visitors show better seasonal performance: 2.1 points per game and a 60% win rate versus the hosts' 1.78 points and 56% wins, while keeping a clean sheet in 60% of matches (hosts 22%). Despite the hosts’ higher xG (1.76 vs 1.3), the visitors are more efficient in finishing (conversion 12% vs 6%), which increases their chances of scoring from fewer chances. At half-time the data favors a draw: average first-half goals are 0.89 for the hosts and 0.5 for the visitors, and the visitors were level at the break in 80% of matches (hosts 44%), so HT draw is likely. In the second half the visitors have a clear advantage: 1.4 goals on average vs 1.0 for the hosts and 70% wins in second halves (hosts 56%), which supports a turnaround in favor of the away side; therefore I pick X/2 as the best scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| San Miguel | Ferro Carril Oeste | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 86% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - San Miguel · 2.6 pts / match - Ferro Carril Oeste
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
0.89 goals / match - San Miguel · 1.16 goals / match - Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste is 42% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.05 goals / match - San Miguel · 0.74 goals / match - Ferro Carril Oeste
San Miguel scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while Ferro Carril Oeste keeps a clean sheet in 42% (8 of 19 matches).
Ferro Carril Oeste scores in 74% of matches (14 of 19 matches), while San Miguel keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - San Miguel
Over / Under - Ferro Carril Oeste
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
San Miguel is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.26 pts / match - San Miguel · 0.95 pts / match - Ferro Carril Oeste
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
San Miguel - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ferro Carril Oeste - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 58%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
San Miguel
Ferro Carril Oeste
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| San Miguel | Liga | Ferro Carril Oeste | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.95 | 1.87 | • 1.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 47% | 40% | ▲ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 26% | 30% | ▲ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 37% | 39% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 63% | 56% | ▼ 47% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 70% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): San Miguel 2 - 1 - 0 Ferro Carril Oeste. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
The Prim B Nacional match finished San Miguel 0:1 Ferro Carril Oeste. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between San Miguel and Ferro Carril Oeste?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches San Miguel won 2, Ferro Carril Oeste won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
San Miguel score 0.89 goals per game on average and Ferro Carril Oeste 1.16. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.87 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 47% of San Miguel's matches and 42% of Ferro Carril Oeste's.
What form are San Miguel and Ferro Carril Oeste in?
Over the last 5 games San Miguel have a 1-4-0 record (1.40 points per game) and Ferro Carril Oeste 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.