San Telmo vs Almirante Brown: match statistics

San Telmo hold a slight advantage at home: they create chances worth an average xG of 1.65, while Almirante Brown average 1.10 away from home. The hosts also average 4.13 shots on target per match, compared with just 2.33 for the visitors, although San Telmo make modest use of that edge, scoring 0.93 goals per home game. In their last five matches, San Telmo scored 3 goals and recorded 2 wins, while Almirante Brown scored just 1 goal and won once. The visitors remain solid defensively, however: they concede an average of 0.73 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in 53% of matches, which increases the likelihood of a draw. Even so, their away average of just 0.53 goals scored points to a cautious lean towards the hosts.

The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: BTTS occurred in only 19% of San Telmo matches and 27% of Almirante Brown matches, compared with 39% league-wide. The visitors average 0.53 goals per match and failed to score in 53% of their games, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their matches. Across their last five appearances, neither team had a match with goals from both sides; Almirante Brown scored just 1 goal during that spell. Although the visitors’ average xG is 1.10, their actual finishing remains poor, making it more likely that they will fail to score than that both teams will find the net. BTTS - No means at least one team will not score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 94% of San Telmo’s matches and 93% of Almirante Brown’s matches. The 2.5-goal line has also been surpassed only rarely—in just 13% of the home side’s games and 20% of the away side’s games—supporting the expectation of a low-scoring match, although it offers a smaller safety margin. San Telmo average 0.94 goals per match, while Almirante Brown average 0.53; the visitors have failed to score in 53% of their matches. In their last five games, the hosts scored 3 goals and the visitors just 1, so despite xG figures of 1.50 and 1.10 respectively, I expect around 1.4 goals in total. Under 3.5 goals has the edge because it allows for up to three goals, and that outcome or fewer has clearly been the norm for both teams.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: San Telmo were level at the break in 75% of their matches, compared with 47% for Almirante Brown; in each team’s last five matches, this occurred 60% of the time. The home side’s advantage is clearer after the break: they average 0.63 goals in the second half, while the visitors concede 0.47 and score just 0.20 themselves. San Telmo’s 56% win rate compared with Almirante Brown’s 20%, as well as their average xG of 1.50 versus 1.10, also support a home win, pointing to more scoring chances for the hosts. The X/1 pick therefore combines a frequent half-time draw with a greater chance of the home side deciding the match in the second half. The risk of a goalless draw remains significant, as San Telmo have averaged just 0.60 goals and Almirante Brown 0.20 in their last five matches.