San Telmo vs Central Norte: match statistics

San Telmo have the home advantage: they win 35% of their home matches, while Central Norte win just 18% of their away games and lose 47% of them. The hosts also create better chances, averaging 1.58 xG at home compared with the visitors’ 1.21 on the road, and register an average of 3.94 shots on target per match against their opponents’ 2.94. However, their attacking edge is less pronounced in terms of goals: San Telmo average 1 goal at home, while Central Norte average 0.65 away; both teams often fail to score, in 47% and 53% of these matches respectively. In their last five games, the hosts recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, while the visitors remained unbeaten but drew as many as 4 times. A narrow San Telmo win is therefore the most likely outcome, although the visitors’ defence, which has conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches, significantly increases the chance of a draw.

The strongest indication that at least one team will fail to score is the low goals-per-game average: San Telmo score 0.67 goals per match, while Central Norte score 0.65. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while the visitors fail to score in 53%, making a Central Norte blank particularly likely. The season-long BTTS rate is just 39% for San Telmo and 41% for Central Norte, compared with a league average of 40%. One counterpoint is the visitors’ last five matches, in which both teams scored in 60%, along with their average xG of 1.36 over that period. Even so, both sides’ season-long attacking numbers and the hosts’ solid defence, conceding an average of 0.61 goals, point towards BTTS - No.

San Telmo’s matches finished Under 3.5 goals in 94% of cases, while Central Norte’s did so in 88%, providing the strongest signal for this line. Both teams score at a low average rate: the hosts net 0.67 goals per match and the visitors 0.65; San Telmo have also kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. Although their average xG figures stand at 1.37 and 1.21 respectively, both teams’ actual finishing remains less productive, limiting the forecast to 1.90 total goals. San Telmo averaged 1.4 goals scored over their last five matches, but Central Norte conceded just 0.6, making Under 3.5 goals a safer pick than a lower line.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: San Telmo went into the break level in 61% of their matches, compared with 47% for Central Norte, rising to 80% in the visitors’ last five games. Both teams score few goals before the break, averaging 0.39 and 0.35 respectively, so it is difficult to identify a clear candidate to take an early lead. The match could remain level after the interval, as San Telmo drew 61% of their matches this season, while Central Norte drew four of their last five. In the second halves, the hosts average 0.28 goals and the visitors 0.29; San Telmo also drew that half in 78% of their matches. The hosts have the edge in shots on target, 4.28 to 2.94, so a San Telmo win remains a realistic alternative. However, their low scoring rate and the frequent draws primarily point to an X/X scenario in the HT/FT market.