Santa Fe vs Boyacá Chicó: match statistics

Santa Fe have a clear home advantage: they score an average of 2.00 goals per match at home, while Boyacá Chicó manage just 0.18 goals away from home and fail to score in 82% of matches. The hosts average 13.75 shots, including 5.25 on target, whereas the visitors record only 8 attempts and 2 shots on target. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances created: Santa Fe’s average home xG stands at 1.48, compared with just 0.83 for Boyacá Chicó away from home. The visitors’ defence concedes 3.09 goals per match away, have kept no clean sheets and have lost 91% of their away fixtures. Santa Fe have won 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded just 4 goals in that run, making a convincing home victory the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Boyacá Chicó’s extremely poor away scoring record: the team averages just 0.18 goals and fails to score in 82% of matches. Santa Fe concede only 0.56 goals per home game and keep a clean sheet in 44% of their home appearances, further limiting the visitors’ chances. The seasonal BTTS rate is just 22% for Santa Fe and 18% for Boyacá Chicó, well below the league average of 53%. Although the visitors have improved their scoring average to 1.2 goals over their last five matches, they still concede 2.0 goals per game, making a one-sided home win more likely than both teams finding the net. Santa Fe average 4.44 shots on target compared with the opposition’s 2.0 and should have the edge, but a scenario in which at least one team fails to score remains by far the most probable outcome.

Santa Fe score an average of 1.44 goals at home, while Boyacá Chicó concede as many as 3.09 away from home, clearly indicating a home advantage. At the same time, the visitors score just 0.18 goals per match away from home, have failed to score in 82% of their matches, and will face a Santa Fe side that concede only 0.56 goals at home. Just 22% of Santa Fe’s matches and 18% of Boyacá Chicó’s matches featured both teams scoring, so a one-sided result is the most likely outcome, with limited contribution from the visitors. The Under 3.5 goals line was covered in 89% of Santa Fe’s matches and 64% of Boyacá Chicó’s, while the projected total of 2.25 goals provides a solid safety margin. Although both teams have seen Over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, their overall season profile and the visitors’ very poor attacking output provide stronger support for Under 3.5.

Santa Fe have a clear quality advantage: they average 1.44 goals per match, compared with just 0.18 for Boyacá Chicó, while the visitors concede as many as 3.09 goals per game. The hosts were leading at the break in 4 of their 9 matches (44%) and conceded just 0.11 goals per game before half-time, whereas Chicó were trailing at half-time in 9 of 11 appearances, or 82%. The difference is also reflected in chance creation: Santa Fe record an xG of 1.28 and 4.44 shots on target per match, compared with their opponents’ xG of 0.83 and 2.00 shots on target. Boyacá Chicó have not won a single match this season, have lost 91% of their games and have kept a clean sheet on no occasion, strongly supporting the scenario of Santa Fe taking the lead at the break and maintaining their winning position. Even across their last five matches, Santa Fe have won 60% of games, while Chicó have suffered defeat in 40%, making the 1/1 HT/FT outcome the strongest selection.