Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF: match statistics

Santa Fe have a clear home advantage, averaging 1.86 goals per match at home, while Fortaleza CEIF score just 0.83 away from home. The hosts also create better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.48 compared with the visitors’ 0.97, and they record more than twice as many shots on target: 5.21 to 2.42 per match. Santa Fe concede an average of 0.93 goals at home, whereas Fortaleza CEIF allow opponents 1.75 goals away and have not won a single away match, drawing 50% and losing 50% of such fixtures. Recent form also favors the hosts, who are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with a record of 1 win and 4 draws, while the visitors have lost 3 of their last 5 games. Santa Fe’s high draw rate and both teams’ poor attacking efficiency in recent weeks increase the likelihood of a closely contested match, but the hosts’ superior quality points to a narrow victory.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are clearly high: Santa Fe record BTTS in 71% of their matches, while Fortaleza CEIF do so in 67%, compared with the league average of 54%. The hosts should create more chances, as they average 1.44 xG and 4.79 shots on target per match, while Fortaleza concede an average of 1.75 goals and allow opponents 1.41 xG. The visitors’ chances of scoring are reduced by Santa Fe’s strong recent run, during which they conceded only 2 goals in five matches. However, their latest xG against stands at 1.41, meaning opponents have still been creating chances. Fortaleza average only 0.83 goals per season and have failed to score in 33% of matches, which limits confidence in the pick, but the visitors’ weak defence and both teams’ strong historical BTTS profiles marginally favour a scenario with goals at both ends — BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal.

Santa Fe score an average of 1.29 goals at home, while Fortaleza concede as many as 1.75 goals away from home, giving the hosts a realistic chance of scoring around 1–2 goals. However, the visitors have limited attacking potential: they score just 0.83 goals on average, generate 0.97 xG, and register 2.42 shots on target per match compared with Santa Fe’s 4.79. Santa Fe’s last five matches were particularly tight, averaging just 1.2 total goals, with none finishing above 2.5 goals. Across the entire season, Santa Fe have not recorded a match with at least 4 goals, while Fortaleza stayed below that mark in 67% of their appearances. The projected total of 2.00 goals points to a clear preference for Under 3.5 goals, covering the most likely scorelines of 1:0, 1:1 and 2:0.

A draw at half-time followed by a Santa Fe win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 8 of their 14 matches this season (57%), and this occurred in all of their last five games. During this run, Santa Fe neither conceded nor scored before the break, strongly supporting a cautious, goalless start. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase: they average 0.71 goals in this period, while Fortaleza CEIF concede 0.92. Across the season, Fortaleza have not won a single match, average just 0.5 points per game, and concede 1.75 goals on average, with opponents recording an xG of 1.41. Santa Fe also have the stronger chance-creation metrics, with an xG of 1.44 compared with 0.97 and 4.79 shots on target per match versus the opponents’ 2.42. Therefore, the X/1 HT/FT scenario is the strongest.