Santo Domingo vs LDU Portoviejo: match statistics

I back '1' — a Santo Domingo win. Home side have won 67% of matches at home (2/3), averaging 1.67 goals scored and conceding just 0.67 per game. LDU Portoviejo’s away form is disastrous: 100% losses on the road, conceding 2.0 goals on average and scoring only 0.75 away, with 50% of away matches without a goal. Hosts create better chances — at home they average 5 shots on target and 8.5 shots overall per match with a 24% conversion, while visitors record 3.33 shots on target and a 13% conversion. In the last 5 games Santo Domingo have scored 6 and conceded 4, averaging 1.6 points per match, while LDU have scored 9 and conceded 5 with 1.4 points per match; this indicates greater points stability for the hosts. xG is similar (1.12 xG for hosts vs 1.09 xG for guests), but superior defending by the hosts and the visitors’ lack of away wins lead me to a 65% probability for a home win, 20% for a draw and 15% for an away win.

Santo Domingo have a very strong defense this season — conceding 0.33 goals per game on average and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of matches, while LDU Portoviejo have recorded 0% clean sheets away and concede 2.0 goals per game on average. Offensively the hosts also look better by xG: Santo Domingo’s average xG is 1.82 versus LDU’s xG against of 1.44, and the hosts average 16 shots and 5.67 on target per match with a seasonal goals average of 1.0. LDU do show some short-term threat in the last 5 matches — the visitors score 1.8 goals on average and have an xG of 1.17, and their shot conversion is higher (13% vs 6%), which gives a real chance of a goal; the BTTS case is also supported by the fact that 60% of Santo Domingo’s last 5 matches ended BTTS and the hosts conceded 0.8 goals on average in those 5 games. In summary, the weight of Santo Domingo’s season-long defensive data (0.33 conceded, 67% CS) outweighs LDU’s short-term rise in efficiency, so I predict BTTS = No with a probability of 60% versus 40% for BTTS = Yes.

After weighting seasonal and last-5 matches, expected goals are 1.39 for Santo Domingo and 1.01 for LDU Portoviejo, total 2.40 goals. Season-long xG for the home side is 1.82, while xG against LDU is 1.44 (seasonal estimate 1.63 for the hosts); however, in the last 5 matches the hosts’ xG fell to 0.99 and after accounting for the opponent’s defensive profile resulted in ~1.02, hence the weighted figure 1.39. A Poisson model with λ=2.40 yields probability of Over 1.5 goals ~69%, Over 2.5 ~43% and Over 3.5 ~22%. Additionally, Santo Domingo averages 16 shots and 5.67 on target per match versus 8 and 3.33 for LDU, and LDU has 0% clean sheets this season and concedes on average 2.0 goals seasonally, which increases scoring likelihood. Based on this, the strongest and most probable signal is Over 1.5, therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5.

Santo Domingo is markedly stronger at home: 67% home win rate and 0% defeats, with a 100% clean sheet rate at half-time and an average of 0.0 goals conceded by the break, which greatly increases the likelihood of the hosts leading at the break. LDU Portoviejo have 0% wins and 100% losses this season and concede an average of 2.0 goals per match; the visitors are behind at half-time in 75% of cases, so mounting a comeback will be difficult. The hosts’ attacking superiority is reflected in an xG of 1.82 versus 1.44 on the visitors’ defensive side and in shots on target, 5.67 to 3.33, suggesting Santo Domingo will create and convert more chances. The hosts average 1.0 goals in the second half and collect about 1.67 points on average after the break, so maintaining the lead and securing a final victory is likely. On this basis the most probable scenario is a Half-Time/Full-Time lead and win for the hosts (HT/FT 1/1).