Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara: match statistics

Santos Laguna come into this match on the back of five consecutive defeats, having scored just 2 goals and conceded 7 throughout the season. At home, the hosts have yet to find the net, averaging only 1 shot on target per match and failing to score in 100% of their games, despite an average xG of 1.18. Guadalajara are the more stable side: they have suffered just one defeat in three league matches, while producing significantly more chances away from home, recording 2.63 xG and 9 shots on target per game compared with 1 for their opponents. The visitors allow their opponents just 0.78 xG away from home, whereas Santos Laguna’s defence concedes 1.44 xG, further strengthening Guadalajara’s advantage. Although Guadalajara drew their only away match, the clear gap in the quality of chances created, combined with the hosts’ very poor finishing, points to an away win.

Santos Laguna average just 0.5 goals per season and 0.6 goals over their last five matches, while they have failed to score in 50% of their league games. Guadalajara have also managed only 0.6 goals per match recently, which is why BTTS in the last five appearances of both teams stands at just 40% each, well below the league average of 59%. The visitors should have good conditions to score, as Santos have recently conceded 2.4 goals per match, with opponents recording 1.83 xG against them. However, the biggest risk to the BTTS scenario is the hosts’ finishing: despite registering 2.05 xG this season, their shot conversion rate is only 3%, while Guadalajara allow an average of just 0.78 opponent xG. Therefore, the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team—most notably Santos Laguna—will fail to score. This does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5, as 100% of the teams’ previous matches ended with a maximum of three goals, and the 2.5-goal line was also not exceeded. Guadalajara creates plenty of chances, averaging 2.63 xG and 9 shots on target per match, but this translates into just 1.0 goal scored per game. Santos Laguna are in poor defensive form, conceding 2.4 goals per match in their last five appearances, which raises the visitors’ projection to 1.47 goals. At the same time, the hosts have scored only 0.6 goals per match in their last five games, despite Guadalajara conceding an average of 1.0 goal. The total projection of 2.25 goals leaves room for fewer than four goals, even with the visitors holding a clear offensive advantage.

The strongest scenario is Guadalajara leading at the break and going on to win, as Santos have lost their last five matches, scoring an average of just 0.6 goals and conceding as many as 2.4. The visitors have a clear edge in chance creation: their average xG is 2.63 compared with the hosts’ 2.05, while they also average 24 shots and 9 on target, versus Santos’ 17.5 and 6. Both teams have produced few goals in the first halves, but Santos have failed to score before the break in any of the current sample, while Guadalajara also average 0.0 goals before half-time, which additionally increases the likelihood of a draw at the break. The second half is decisive, however: Santos have conceded an average of 1.6 goals after half-time in their last five matches, whereas Guadalajara have conceded only 0.4. The visitors have also won the second half in every available league match this season, which is why the 2/2 outcome has the highest probability, although X/2 remains a serious alternative.