Santos vs Chapecoense: match statistics

Santos is the clear favorite: at home they win 50% of matches, while Chapecoense has not recorded a single away win (0% away wins) and loses 78% of their away fixtures. Offensively Santos averages 1.5 goals per home game with an average xG of 1.16, and has scored 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 per game); Chapecoense scores only 0.44 goals away with an xG of 0.96 and 5 goals in the last 5 games. Defensively the visitors are more vulnerable — Chapecoense concedes an average of 1.67 goals away and has an average xG against of 2.18, while Santos concedes 1.2 goals at home with xG against 1.36; additionally Chapecoense has 0% clean sheets on the road vs 30% for Santos. Quality of chances favors the hosts: Santos registers 3.1 SOT and 10.1 shots overall with a 15% conversion rate at home, whereas Chapecoense has only 2.11 SOT and 9.33 shots with a 5% conversion and fail to score in 56% of away matches. Considering the possession advantage (51% vs 39%), superior shooting efficiency and form (on average 1.8 points per game in the last 5 for Santos vs 0.6 for Chapecoense), I assign 70% probability to a home win, 20% to a draw and 10% to an away win.

I back BTTS - Yes because Santos records BTTS in 78% of matches this season and 80% in the last 5, while Chapecoense has 44% seasonally and 40% in the last 5; this gap (78% vs 44%) favors both teams scoring. Santos produces 1.6 xG, averages 16 shots with 4.56 on target and scores 1.44 goals per match, but concedes 2.22 goals seasonally, increasing the chance the opponent scores. Chapecoense has a weak seasonal goals average of 0.44 (xG 0.96), but in the last 5 matches improved to 1.0 goal and has 0% clean sheets away, so they can find the net. xG comparison shows Santos has 1.6 xG while Chapecoense concedes 2.18 xG on average against them, which — combined with Santos’ higher shot volume and conversion (9% vs 5%) — supports a Goal/Goal outcome. Therefore I assess BTTS probability at 70% versus 30% for No Goal.

Aggregation of xG and seasonal averages indicates about 1.89 goals for Santos (attack xG 1.60 and average xG conceded by Chapecoense 2.18) and 1.27 for Chapecoense (attack xG 0.96 and average xG conceded by Santos 1.58), yielding a total of ~3.16 goals. Seasonal data confirm a propensity for goals: both teams have 89% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Santos records 67% of matches >2.5 and 56% >3.5, and in the last 5 matches Santos scores on average 2.6 goals and has 100% of matches >2.5. Chapecoense meanwhile scores only 0.44 goals on average this season and has a low conversion rate (5% from attempts), but concedes high xG against (2.18), which favors high-scoring outcomes. A Poisson model with λ=3.16 gives probabilities of over 1.5 ≈82%, over 2.5 ≈61% and over 3.5 ≈39%; accounting for Santos’ high seasonal metrics and recent scoring form, I adjust these slightly toward a higher goal count. Consequently I recommend a play on Over 1.5 (strongest signal) with ratings: Over 1.5 = 86%, Over 2.5 = 62% and Over 3.5 = 37%.

The strongest first-half signal is frequent draws: Santos were level at the break in 78% of matches, and Chapecoense in 67%, making a draw at half-time the most likely state. However, the home-side advantage emerges after the break: Santos’s xG is 1.6 versus Chapecoense’s 0.96, with on average 4.56 shots on target vs 2.11 and a seasonal goals-per-game of 1.44 vs 0.44, so Santos has greater scoring potential in the second half. In the last five matches Santos averaged 1.8 goals after the break, while Chapecoense only 0.4; additionally Santos won 60% of second halves in that period, whereas Chapecoense won 0%. Form and overall statistics reinforce this picture: Santos has a 60% win rate in the last five matches with 2.6 average goals in that span, and Chapecoense only a 20% win rate and a seasonal average of 0.44 goals, with a seasonal loss rate of 78%. Therefore the most probable scenario is X/1 (draw at half-time, Santos win Full-Time), which I assign a 42% probability in my projection.