Santos vs Vitória: match statistics
Santos vs Vitória: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Santos played Vitória in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 30 May 2026. Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Santos: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Vitória: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Santos scores 1.35 and concedes 1.65 goals per match. Vitória scores 1.25 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Santos 71%, Vitória 44%. Over 2.5: Santos 59%, Vitória 38%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Santos has higher xG: 1.30 vs 1.15. Santos: 12.2 shots per match, Vitória: 10.3.
Match halves
Santos: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.65. Vitória: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Santos: 31-45+ (6 goals). Vitória: 16-30 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Santos to win. Santos averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 1.22 at home, registering 10.67 shots with 3 on target and a conversion rate around 13%, and only 11% of home matches end with them failing to score. Vitória has 4 wins and 14 goals (2.8 avg) in the last 5 matches overall, but away they score just 0.75 goals per game, concede 2.38 goals, have 0% away wins and 38% of away matches without scoring. In terms of chance quality Santos posts 1.20 xG at home versus Vitória’s 0.97 xG away, while the visitors allow 1.90 xG on the road, indicating defensive issues away from home. Given the hosts’ superior offensive efficiency and more stable defense compared to the visitors’ clear away weaknesses, Santos is the favorite.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Santos has a 75% clean sheet rate this season and concedes only 0.38 goals per match on average, while Vitória scores 0.75 goals away and concedes 2.38 goals seasonally, which favors No BTTS. Season-long BTTS rates are 25% for Santos versus 63% for Vitória, with a league BTTS level of 59%, so Vitória is more often involved in Goal/Goal matches, but the home side’s strong defense reduces BTTS risk. Santos creates more chances (xG 1.34 vs 0.97, 12.25 shots vs 8.38 and 4.63 shots on target vs 3.0) and has higher shot efficiency (14% vs 9%), suggesting home control. There is a short-term counter-signal: Vitória scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 avg), and Santos conceded 1.6 goals per match in their last 5, but these are short-term figures against Santos’ dominant season-long defense. In summary, Santos’ 75% clean sheets and 0.38 seasonal goals conceded make the No scenario more likely (70%) than Yes (30%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The averaged xG model yields 1.62 expected goals for Santos (xG_for 1.34 vs opponent xG_against 1.90) and 1.11 for Vitória (xG_for 0.97 vs Santos xG_against 1.25), totaling 2.73 goals. A Poisson distribution with lambda=2.73 indicates the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 76%, the probability of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) about 51%, and Over 3.5 about 29%. Seasonal figures provide additional support: Santos have 75% of matches over 1.5 goals, Vitória 100% of matches over 1.5, with Vitória conceding on average 2.38 goals per game while Santos keep a clean sheet in 75% of fixtures. Additionally, Santos average 12.25 shots and 4.63 on target with a 14% conversion rate, whereas Vitória average 8.38 shots and 3.0 on target with a 9% conversion, which reinforces the likelihood of at least two goals; therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 with an estimated probability of 76%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Santos is the clear favorite: the home side won 75% of matches and led at the break in 5 games, which represents 63% of appearances with a lead after 45 minutes. Vitória has not recorded a win (0% wins) and concedes an average of 2.38 goals per match, including 1.38 goals before the break, while Santos scores on average 0.75 goals by half-time. Santos generates xG 1.34 with an average of 12.25 shots and 4.63 on target, whereas Vitória has xG 0.97 with 8.38 shots and 3.0 on target and lower conversion (9% for Vitória vs 14% for Santos), indicating an advantage in chance creation and quality for the hosts. Additionally, Santos has 75% of matches with a clean sheet, while Vitória records 63% of matches with both teams scoring, so the scenario of Santos leading at the break and maintaining the victory is the most justified. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 variant (Santos leads at Half-Time and wins at Full-Time) at 52%, whereas quick Vitória comebacks and 2/2 results are assessed as unlikely (2%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Santos | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vitória is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Santos · 1.4 pts / match - Vitória
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Santos is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.35 goals / match - Santos · 1.25 goals / match - Vitória
Vitória is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.65 goals / match - Santos · 1.38 goals / match - Vitória
Santos scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while Vitória keeps a clean sheet in 38% (6 of 16 matches).
Vitória scores in 75% of matches (12 of 16 matches), while Santos keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Santos
Over / Under - Vitória
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Santos is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.47 pts / match - Santos · 1.25 pts / match - Vitória
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Santos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 24%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Vitória - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Santos
Vitória
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Santos | Liga | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.00 | 2.68 | • 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 58% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 59% | 51% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | • 24% | 23% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 77% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 78% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Santos 1 - 0 - 1 Vitória. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Santos vs Vitória?
The Serie A match finished Santos 3:1 Vitória. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Vitória?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Santos won 1, Vitória won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Santos vs Vitória?
Santos score 1.35 goals per game on average and Vitória 1.25. The Serie A average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Santos's matches and 44% of Vitória's.
What form are Santos and Vitória in?
Over the last 5 games Santos have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Vitória 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Santos vs Vitória?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Santos vs Vitória: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.