São João Ver vs Varzim: match statistics

Varzim are favourites: they sit 3rd in the table and have won both of their away matches so far, while ninth-placed São João Ver are still without a win this season. The visitors average 2.5 goals and 7 shots on target per match away from home, whereas the hosts score just 0.5 goals at home from 2.5 shots on target. The difference in chance quality is reflected in xG: 1.83 for Varzim away from home compared with 1.32 for São João Ver at home. The hosts concede an average of 1.5 goals on their own ground, but their away xG against Varzim stands at 1.52, so their chances of scoring should not be ruled out. With the visitors having won their last two away games and the hosts on a five-match winless run, a Varzim victory remains the most likely outcome.

Varzim have a strong chance of scoring: they average 2.5 goals per match and register 7 shots on target, while São João Ver concede an average of 1.33 goals. The bigger unknown is whether the hosts will find the net; they have averaged just 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches and have failed to score in 33% of their matches this season. Varzim have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, although their average of 1.52 expected goals conceded shows that their defence is not impenetrable. The fact that both teams scored in 80% of Varzim’s last 5 matches supports BTTS - Yes, but the hosts’ poor finishing makes this a less convincing signal. Therefore, it is marginally more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

Varzim have significantly greater attacking potential, scoring an average of 2,5 goals per match and registering 7 shots on target, compared with São João Ver’s 1,0 goal and 2 shots on target. The visitors also post an xG of 1,83 versus the hosts’ 0,98, although their average xG has fallen to 1,34 over their last five matches. The Under 3.5 goals selection is supported by the fact that none of São João Ver’s matches to date have gone above this line, while Varzim have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. The main risk is the visitors’ scoring form: they have averaged 2,2 goals over their last five matches, and at least 3 goals were scored in 80% of those games. The projected total of 2,60 goals accounts for that attacking threat, but the hosts’ poor scoring record—an average of 0,4 goals in their last five matches—gives the Under 3.5 line the edge.

Varzim have a clear attacking edge, averaging 2.5 goals compared with São João Ver’s 1.0, while their xG stands at 1.83 versus 0.98 for the hosts. The visitors also average 7 shots on target per match, compared with 2 for the hosts, increasing the likelihood of taking the lead at the break. In the matches covered by the statistics so far, Varzim led at half-time in 2 of 2 games, although São João Ver have also made strong starts, leading in 2 of 3. The second-half figures support the visitors holding on to their advantage: they score an average of 1.0 goals and concede none in that period, while the hosts fail to score and concede an average of 1.0 goal. The 2/2 HT/FT selection is therefore marginally stronger than a half-time draw followed by an away win, but the small sample of matches and Varzim’s 3 defeats in their last 5 games warrant caution.