São Paulo vs Grêmio: match statistics
São Paulo presents impressive home form with a 100% win rate in matches at home, having not lost a single encounter at their own stadium this season. The hosts show solid scoring efficiency with a 20% shot conversion rate and an average of 2 goals per match in home games. Grêmio, on the other hand, struggles with huge problems in away matches, losing all away encounters so far (100% losses) and conceding an average of 2 goals per match. The difference in form between the two teams is clear—São Paulo has a record of 2.0 points per match in the last 5 games, while Grêmio has only 1.4. The xG comparison for the hosts in home matches (1.09 vs 1.21 for Grêmio away) is not significant, however, São Paulo's decidedly better defensive statistics at home and Grêmio's catastrophic away form argue for a home victory.
São Paulo vs Grêmio: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
São Paulo played Grêmio in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 12 February 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
São Paulo: 1-1-0, 2.00 points/match. Grêmio: 1-0-1, 1.50 points/match.
Goal statistics
São Paulo scores 1.50 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Grêmio scores 3.00 and concedes 2.50. League average: 3.43 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: São Paulo 100%, Grêmio 100%. Over 2.5: São Paulo 50%, Grêmio 100%. League level: BTTS 78%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Grêmio has higher xG: 1.43 vs 0.96. São Paulo: 9.0 shots per match, Grêmio: 13.0.
Match halves
São Paulo: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.50. Grêmio: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 2.50.
Goals by minute
São Paulo: 61-75 (3 goals). Grêmio: 46-60 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 3.43 goals per match, BTTS 78%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
São Paulo presents impressive home form with a 100% win rate in matches at home, having not lost a single encounter at their own stadium this season. The hosts show solid scoring efficiency with a 20% shot conversion rate and an average of 2 goals per match in home games. Grêmio, on the other hand, struggles with huge problems in away matches, losing all away encounters so far (100% losses) and conceding an average of 2 goals per match. The difference in form between the two teams is clear—São Paulo has a record of 2.0 points per match in the last 5 games, while Grêmio has only 1.4. The xG comparison for the hosts in home matches (1.09 vs 1.21 for Grêmio away) is not significant, however, São Paulo's decidedly better defensive statistics at home and Grêmio's catastrophic away form argue for a home victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| São Paulo | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
São Paulo is 33% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - São Paulo · 1.5 pts / match - Grêmio
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Grêmio is 100% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - São Paulo · 3 goals / match - Grêmio
São Paulo is 150% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - São Paulo · 2.5 goals / match - Grêmio
São Paulo scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 matches).
Grêmio scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while São Paulo keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - São Paulo
Over / Under - Grêmio
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
São Paulo - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Grêmio - second-half results
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Average goals in match | 1.5 | 4.0 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 0% |
| No goal | 50% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
São Paulo
Grêmio
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| São Paulo | Liga | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.50 | 3.43 | ▲ 5.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 100% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 65% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 11% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 74% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 87% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): São Paulo 1 - 0 - 1 Grêmio. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of São Paulo vs Grêmio?
The Serie A match finished São Paulo 2:0 Grêmio. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between São Paulo and Grêmio?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 1, Grêmio won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before São Paulo vs Grêmio?
São Paulo score 1.50 goals per game on average and Grêmio 3.00. The Serie A average is 3.43 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 100% of São Paulo's matches and 100% of Grêmio's.
What form are São Paulo and Grêmio in?
Over the last 5 games São Paulo have a 1-1-0 record (2.00 points per game) and Grêmio 1-0-1 (1.50 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for São Paulo vs Grêmio?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.