Sarajevo vs Radnik Bijeljina: match statistics

Sarajevo are showing a clearly stronger run of form: in their last five matches, they have scored 8 goals, won 2 games and averaged 1.6 points per match. Over the same period, Radnik Bijeljina have failed to win a single game, recording 3 defeats and just 2 draws, for an average of only 0.4 points per match. The hosts conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five appearances, while the visitors conceded 6 goals, or 1.2 per game, but their failure to score in this sample is particularly concerning. Sarajevo have not been entirely consistent, losing once and conceding 7 goals in their last five matches; however, their attacking advantage and significantly better results point to a home win. A draw remains a realistic possibility given Sarajevo’s 2 draws in this run, but a controlled victory for the hosts is more likely.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Radnik’s form: they have failed to score in their last 5 matches, recording a BTTS rate of 0%. Sarajevo scored an average of 1.6 goals per match during this period and netted 8 goals in total, making them clear favourites to score. However, the hosts conceded an average of 1.4 goals, while their opponents created just 0.98 xG per match and have gone scoreless in five consecutive appearances. Sarajevo recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, but this trend is outweighed by Radnik’s extremely poor attacking output. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team—primarily the visitors—will fail to score.

The strongest signal is Radnik’s low offensive potential: they have failed to score in their last five matches, conceding 6 goals in the process. Sarajevo averaged 1.6 goals per match during this period, but their average xG was only 1.29, which limits the expectation of a high-scoring home win. Radnik created chances worth just 0.98 xG per match, while Sarajevo allowed opponents 0.86 xG, which is why the visitors are projected to score around 0.55 goals. However, the hosts conceded an average of 1.4 goals, so the 2.5 line does not offer an equally strong safety margin. Full-season statistics are unavailable, but the available form and the projected total of 1.90 goals clearly support Under 3.5.

Sarajevo are in better form: they have averaged 1.6 goals and collected 1.6 points per match over their last five games, while Radnik have failed to score and managed just 0.4 points per game. The hosts were leading at the break in 40% of those matches, whereas the visitors have not held a half-time lead on any occasion; Radnik averaged 0.0 goals before the interval. After the break, Sarajevo’s attacking advantage remains clear, as they average 1.0 goal in the second half compared with Radnik’s 0.0. The Bijeljina side have failed to score after half-time in each of their last five matches and lost 60% of those games. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore Sarajevo leading at the break and maintaining their advantage through to the final whistle: 1/1.