Sarajevo vs Zrinjski: match statistics
Sarajevo vs Zrinjski: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sarajevo played Zrinjski in Premier League of Bosnia (Bosnia & Herzegovina). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Sarajevo: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Zrinjski: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sarajevo scores 1.30 and concedes 1.04 goals per match. Zrinjski scores 1.26 and concedes 0.67. League average: 2.10 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sarajevo 33%, Zrinjski 33%. Over 2.5: Sarajevo 41%, Zrinjski 30%. League level: BTTS 35%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
Zrinjski has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.39. Sarajevo: 11.0 shots per match, Zrinjski: 11.4.
Match halves
Sarajevo: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.67. Zrinjski: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Sarajevo: 46-60 (7 goals). Zrinjski: 46-60 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League of Bosnia: 2.10 goals per match, BTTS 35%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home side (Sarajevo): at home they average 1.85 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded per match, with a 69% home win rate and 69% of home games without conceding, and a home goal difference of +16. Their home xG is 1.53 versus Zrinjski’s 1.24 on the road, and Sarajevo averages 4.54 on-target shots and 12.46 shots per match compared to 3.08 on-target and 9.54 shots for the visitors, indicating higher-quality chances. Zrinjski, however, have had a strong season: 17 wins vs. Sarajevo’s 12 and only 18 goals conceded all season, and in their last 5 matches they average 2.0 points per game with a 5–3 goal record. The visitors convert roughly 14% of their chances but fail to score more often (23% of matches without a goal) than Sarajevo at home (8%), which further supports the home attack. Considering the advantage in chance quality (xG 1.53 vs 1.24), better home efficiency and defense, I assign a 55% probability to a Sarajevo win, 25% to a draw and 20% to a Zrinjski win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have relatively low season BTTS rates: Sarajevo 36% and Zrinjski 31%, giving a baseline around 34%. Additionally, very high clean sheet rates – Sarajevo 50%, Zrinjski 46% and league clean sheet rate 76% – and low average goals conceded (0.57 for Sarajevo and 0.77 for Zrinjski) significantly reduce the probability of both teams scoring. Looking at form, in the last 5 matches Sarajevo has BTTS 40% and concedes on average 1.4 goals, while Zrinjski has BTTS 20% and concedes only 0.6 goals, suggesting an asymmetry: Sarajevo is more prone to conceding, but overall Zrinjski keeps clean sheets more often. Offensively Sarajevo shows higher xG (1.64) and averages 13.21 shots per match versus Zrinjski’s xG 1.24 and 9.54 shots, however opponent conversion (14% vs 9%) does not offset defensive stats and the low league average goals 2.11. As a result, based on seasonal 36%/31% BTTS, high 50%/46% clean sheets and low 0.57/0.77 goals conceded, I take the 'No' variant as stronger and assess BTTS=no probability at 68% versus 32% for BTTS=Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals as the average of the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: Sarajevo (1.64 attacking + 1.17 opponent defense)/2 = 1.41, Zrinjski (1.24 + 0.84)/2 = 1.04, giving a total of 2.45 goals. Transforming the total expected goals 2.45 through a Poisson distribution yields roughly a 70% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 44% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 23% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Historical rates confirm a strong signal for Over 1.5: Sarajevo has 64% of matches over 1.5 goals, Zrinjski 62%, while Over 2.5 is only 29% and 31%, and Over 3.5 0% and 15%. Additionally Sarajevo averages 13.21 shots with 4.29 on target and a 9% conversion, and Zrinjski 9.54 shots with 3.08 on target and a 14% conversion, so both teams generate chances, supporting the edge for Over 1.5. Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 (strongest signal: 70% probability), while the 2.5 line is marginal (44%) and 3.5 has too low probability (23%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Analysis of first halves suggests the hosts more often open the scoring: Sarajevo led at the break in 6 of 14 matches (43%), scoring on average 0.57 goals before the break while conceding 0.29, and they also scored 5 goals in minutes 0–15, indicating the possibility of a quick lead. Nevertheless, Zrinjski has a clear advantage over the full match — the visitors win 69% of matches and average 1.31 goals per game this season, and their shot conversion rate is 14% versus 9% for the hosts, so with fewer chances they can be more efficient. The shift occurs after the break: Zrinjski have 92% of second halves with at least one goal and scored 6 goals in minutes 46–60 and 4 goals in 76–90, while the hosts concede only 0.29 goals on average in the second half. This profile yields a logical scenario in which Sarajevo opens the match and leads at half-time (HT 1), but Zrinjski’s effectiveness and offensive strength after the break favour them to win after 90 minutes (FT 2). Therefore I give the greatest weight to the HT/FT 1/2 combination (30%), and as alternatives I consider X/2 (18%) and 1/1 (15%) due to the high percentage of draws at the break and the generally low number of goals before the interval.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sarajevo | Zrinjski | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Zrinjski is 140% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Sarajevo · 2.4 pts / match - Zrinjski
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Zrinjski is 55% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.04 goals / match - Sarajevo · 0.67 goals / match - Zrinjski
Sarajevo scores in 74% of matches (20 of 27 matches), while Zrinjski keeps a clean sheet in 48% (13 of 27 matches).
Zrinjski scores in 74% of matches (20 of 27 matches), while Sarajevo keeps a clean sheet in 52% (14 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sarajevo
Over / Under - Zrinjski
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sarajevo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Zrinjski - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sarajevo
Zrinjski
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League of Bosnia).
Teams vs league
| Sarajevo | Liga | Zrinjski | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.33 | 2.10 | ▼ 1.93 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 35% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 41% | 36% | ▼ 30% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 52% | 38% | ▲ 48% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 59% | 57% | • 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 72% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Sarajevo 1 - 1 - 1 Zrinjski. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sarajevo vs Zrinjski?
The Premier League of Bosnia match finished Sarajevo 2:1 Zrinjski. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarajevo and Zrinjski?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Sarajevo won 1, Zrinjski won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Sarajevo vs Zrinjski?
Sarajevo score 1.30 goals per game on average and Zrinjski 1.26. The Premier League of Bosnia average is 2.10 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Sarajevo's matches and 33% of Zrinjski's.
What form are Sarajevo and Zrinjski in?
Over the last 5 games Sarajevo have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Zrinjski 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sarajevo vs Zrinjski?
The statistical background for Sarajevo vs Zrinjski — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.