Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad: match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sarpsborg 08 played Fredrikstad in Eliteserien (Norway). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Sarpsborg 08: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Fredrikstad: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sarpsborg 08 scores 0.71 and concedes 1.43 goals per match. Fredrikstad scores 1.29 and concedes 2.14. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sarpsborg 08 43%, Fredrikstad 71%. Over 2.5: Sarpsborg 08 29%, Fredrikstad 71%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Sarpsborg 08 has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.34. Sarpsborg 08: 11.4 shots per match, Fredrikstad: 11.7.
Match halves
Sarpsborg 08: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.00. Fredrikstad: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Sarpsborg 08: 31-45+ (3 goals). Fredrikstad: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eliteserien: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-2. Average goals 2.25, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Draw (X) appears most likely: the home side has superior defensive metrics at home (avg. 1.00 conceded per match) versus Fredrikstad away (2.75 conceded per match), while Sarpsborg scores only 0.67 goals at their stadium. Sarpsborg produces higher home xG (1.59) and averages 5 shots on target from 13.67 attempts, but a low conversion rate of 5% results in many wasted chances. Fredrikstad posts greater possession (51% vs 45%) and has scored more goals in the last 5 matches (6 vs 2), but are inconsistent on the road – 50% of away matches without a goal and 75% away defeats indicate risk. Average xG against Fredrikstad away is 1.84 versus their attacking xG of 1.19, and both teams have 0% clean sheets, so I expect a low-scoring game; I propose probabilities of 35% home win, 45% draw and 20% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis favors the 'both teams to score' scenario and assigns it a 72% probability. Sarpsborg has a season BTTS of 100% and averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Fredrikstad concedes 2.75 goals per game on average and has a season BTTS of 50%, which increases the likelihood of a home side goal. In the last 5 matches Sarpsborg had BTTS 40% versus 80% for Fredrikstad, meaning the visitors have recently been more often part of Goal/Goal games. Supporting this are xG values: Sarpsborg’s attacking xG is 1.53 versus Fredrikstad’s defensive xG of 1.84, and Fredrikstad’s attacking xG is 1.19 versus Sarpsborg’s defensive xG of 1.69, demonstrating scoring potential for both sides. Additionally, both teams have 0% clean sheets this season, high percentages of matches over 2.5 goals for both (67% and 75%), and a league BTTS of 51%, all reinforcing the signal for BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: Sarpsborg xG_for 1.53 and Fredrikstad xG_against 1.84 yield approximately 1.69 xG for Sarpsborg, while Fredrikstad xG_for 1.19 and Sarpsborg xG_against 1.69 give about 1.44 for Fredrikstad — expected total 3.13 goals. A Poisson model on this total forecasts roughly 82% chance of Over 1.5 goals, 61% for Over 2.5 goals and 38% for Over 3.5 goals. Seasonal metrics support a tendency for goals: Sarpsborg scores on average 1.67 goals with 14.33 shots and 4.33 shots on target (conversion 12%), and Fredrikstad concedes on average 2.75 goals and has season Over25 at 75%. There is, however, a mixed signal from form — in the last 5 matches Sarpsborg has scored only 2 goals (0.4 avg), whereas Fredrikstad has scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and has a last5 xG of 1.35, which lowers confidence in higher lines. Considering 100% season Over 1.5 for both teams and the expected total of 3.13 goals, the strongest and most likely pick is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back X/1 (draw at half-time, home win) because Sarpsborg has a clear advantage in chance creation: on average 14.33 shots and 4.33 shots on target per match versus 9.75 and 3.5 for Fredrikstad, and home xG 1.53 versus 1.19 for the visitors. A draw at the break is realistic — Sarpsborg scores on average 1.0 goals by half-time, Fredrikstad only 0.25, and in the last five matches of both teams a half-time draw occurred in 40% of games. After the break the home side’s advantage should grow: Sarpsborg averages 1.67 points in second halves versus 0.75 for the visitors, while Fredrikstad concedes an average of 2.75 goals per match, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround. Additionally, Sarpsborg’s home matches end with goals from both teams in 100% of cases, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home victory (e.g. 2:1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sarpsborg 08 | Fredrikstad | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fredrikstad is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Sarpsborg 08 · 0.8 pts / match - Fredrikstad
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fredrikstad is 82% better for: goals scored per match.
0.71 goals / match - Sarpsborg 08 · 1.29 goals / match - Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.43 goals / match - Sarpsborg 08 · 2.14 goals / match - Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Fredrikstad keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
Fredrikstad scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Sarpsborg 08 keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sarpsborg 08
Over / Under - Fredrikstad
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sarpsborg 08 is 82% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.29 pts / match - Sarpsborg 08 · 0.71 pts / match - Fredrikstad
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sarpsborg 08 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fredrikstad - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sarpsborg 08
Fredrikstad
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eliteserien).
Teams vs league
| Sarpsborg 08 | Liga | Fredrikstad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.14 | 2.83 | ▲ 3.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 50% | ▲ 71% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 50% | ▲ 71% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 27% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 78% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 57% | 76% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Sarpsborg 08 0 - 2 - 2 Fredrikstad. Average goals 2.25, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad?
The Eliteserien match finished Sarpsborg 08 2:1 Fredrikstad. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 and Fredrikstad?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Sarpsborg 08 won 0, Fredrikstad won 2 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad?
Sarpsborg 08 score 0.71 goals per game on average and Fredrikstad 1.29. The Eliteserien average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Sarpsborg 08's matches and 71% of Fredrikstad's.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 and Fredrikstad in?
Over the last 5 games Sarpsborg 08 have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Fredrikstad 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.