Sassuolo vs Juventus: match statistics

Juventus are unbeaten this season, with a record of 2 wins and 1 draw, and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, while Sassuolo have earned 8. The hosts have looked highly attacking at home: they average 2 goals scored, produce 2.17 xG and register 7 shots on target per match, so they should pose a threat in the final third. Juventus, however, have a clear defensive advantage, having conceded no goals away from home, kept a 100% clean-sheet record and limited opponents to just 1.08 xG. The visitors also average 63% possession compared with Sassuolo’s 46% and generate a strong 2.04 xG themselves. Combined with the hosts’ weaker defence, which concedes an average of one goal per match, this points to a narrow Juventus victory. Although both teams have won their only league match so far at home and away respectively, Juventus’ greater consistency and just 1 goal conceded throughout the season tip the prediction in favour of the visitors.

The BTTS signal is not clear-cut, but it leans slightly toward at least one team failing to score. Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far, concede an average of 0.6 goals in their last five games, and allow opponents just 0.96 xG. Sassuolo are in strong attacking form, averaging 1.8 goals and 1.80 xG over their last five matches, but their 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Juventus’ figure of just 40%. The visitors create plenty of chances, averaging 2.04 xG and 20 shots per match, making their goal likely; however, Juventus’ highly solid defence increases the risk of Sassuolo being held scoreless. The BTTS - No pick is also supported by the fact that neither team has recorded a match with over 2.5 goals this season.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as neither team’s league matches so far has produced 4 or more goals, with both teams recording a 100% rate of games below this line. Juventus have yet to concede away from home, with opponents averaging 1.08 xG, which limits Sassuolo’s potential despite their average of 1.8 goals scored per game over their last five appearances. The visitors create plenty of chances, averaging 2.04 xG and 20 shots, but their conversion rate is only 5%, while their last five matches have produced an average of 1.4 goals. Sassuolo have conceded 1.2 goals per game over their last five fixtures, so Juventus should find a way to score, but the 1.20 to 1.25 projection points to a result closer to 2-3 goals than an open, four-goal game. Additionally, only 20% of Juventus’ last five matches went over 2.5 goals, further supporting the Under 3.5 line.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Juventus win, as Sassuolo were level at the break in 2 of their 2 home matches so far, while both teams recorded a 40% half-time draw rate across their last five matches. Juventus nevertheless offer superior attacking creation, with average xG of 2.04 compared with Sassuolo’s 1.78, and 20.0 shots per match versus the hosts’ 17.5. The visitors are also highly solid defensively, conceding an average of 0.0 goals this season and allowing opponents just 1.08 xG, whereas Sassuolo concede an average of 0.5 goals. Across their last five matches, Juventus won 60% of games and averaged 1.0 goal after half-time, which supports a turnaround after an even opening period. A scenario in which Juventus lead at the break also rates highly, as they were ahead after 45 minutes and kept a clean sheet in their only away match so far.