Savoia vs Casertana: match statistics

Savoia have a slightly better record across their last five matches: they have won 2 games and collected 6 points, while Casertana have failed to win any, drawing 3 times and earning 3 points. The hosts scored 9 goals during this period, one more than their opponents, although both defences were equally vulnerable, conceding 10 goals each. In their only match played so far this season, Savoia lost 2:3, while Casertana drew 3:3, highlighting the visitors’ attacking potential but also their difficulties in managing games. Home advantage and Savoia’s stronger winning trend favour the hosts, although the high number of goals conceded keeps the chances of a draw or a scoring response from Casertana significant.

The latest results clearly support goals for both sides: Savoia recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Casertana did so in as many as 100%. Both teams scored regularly during this period, averaging 1.8 and 1.6 goals respectively, while each conceded 2.0 goals per match. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG: Casertana averaged 1.80 xG and Savoia 1.31, while the hosts’ defence allowed opponents 2.04 xG. Savoia average 17 shots and 5 shots on target at home, and their full season began with a 3:3 draw featuring BTTS, taking the rate to 100%. In the league, 70% of matches end with both teams scoring, making the scenario in which each side scores at least one goal more likely.

Both teams come into this match after very open runs of form: Savoia have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five matches, while Casertana have averaged 1.6 and 2.0, respectively. At least three goals were scored in all five of Savoia’s last matches and in 60% of Casertana’s recent games, while both teams scored in 80% and 100% of those matches, respectively. The qualitative data also point to chances for both sides, with Casertana’s average xG standing at 1.80 and Savoia allowing opponents 2.04 xG. The league has a high average of 3.7 goals per match, with 80% of games featuring at least three goals, so the safest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, with a projected total of 3.30 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Savoia win, as the hosts were level at the break in 75% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Casertana. Savoia averaged 1.0 goals before half-time, compared with Casertana’s 0.6, while the visitors failed to score in the first half in as many as 60% of those matches. After the break, the hosts have averaged 1.0 goal scored, while Casertana have conceded an average of 1.0 goal, which favours the match turning in Savoia’s favour after an even first half. Recent form also slightly favours the hosts: they won 40% of their five matches and averaged 1.8 goals, whereas Casertana failed to win any match and conceded an average of 2.0 goals.