Savoia vs Crotone: match statistics

Savoia are showing clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals in that run, while Crotone have failed to win any of their five games, scoring just 3 goals. The hosts have defensive issues at home, conceding an average of 2 goals, but Crotone are still without an away goal and have failed to score in 100% of such matches. Savoia create chances worth an average of 1.16 xG at home, while their opponents allow 1.29 xG, giving the hosts a realistic chance to end their poor home run. The visitors do generate 1.29 xG and average 13 shots away from home, but their 0% conversion rate and 0 goals per match on the road significantly reduce their attacking potential. The superior quality of recent results and Savoia’s greater efficiency point towards a narrow home victory.

BTTS - No is the stronger signal because Crotone have yet to score away from home and are averaging 0.0 goals across the season so far. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their matches, while Savoia have kept a clean sheet in 0% of games, giving the hosts a realistic chance of conceding but not eliminating their opponents’ attacking problems. In their last 5 matches, Crotone have scored only 0.6 goals per game and have lost or drawn 4 of those 5 fixtures, despite recording an average xG of 1.77. Savoia are highly active in attack, averaging 23 shots and 6 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.42, so a home win to nil is more likely than a Goal/Goal outcome. Savoia’s BTTS rate in their last 5 matches stands at 60%, but the 0% recorded in Crotone’s season matches and 40% across their last 5 appearances shift the assessment towards at least one team failing to score.

Savoia have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Crotone have conceded 1.4 goals per game over the same period. The hosts are also creating significantly more chances: their average home xG stands at 2.42, with 23 shots and 6 shots on target per match, while Crotone have conceded an average of 1.0 goal away from home. Crotone have scored just 0.6 goals per game recently, so the projected 0.75 goals for the visitors limits the potential for a high-scoring game. Although only 20% of Crotone’s last five matches went over 2.5 goals, Savoia recorded this outcome in 80% of their matches, while the league average of 3.1 goals supports at least two goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the hosts’ attacking strength should largely be enough to cover this low line.

Savoia are in clearly better form: they have won three of their last five matches, averaging 2.0 goals and 1.8 points per game, while Crotone have failed to win any of those five fixtures and scored just 0.6 goals on average. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the hosts have averaged 1.4 goals before the break compared with only 0.2 for the visitors; Crotone have failed to score before half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Savoia were leading at the break in 40% of their latest fixtures, whereas Crotone were drawing at half-time in as many as 60%, which also leaves a significant chance of the draw/hosts HT/FT outcome. The hosts’ superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 2.42 compared with 1.29 for their opponents, while shots on target average 6.0 versus 3.0. Crotone have conceded an average of 1.2 goals after the break in their last five appearances, so the most likely scenario remains Savoia leading at half-time and winning the match, i.e. the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.