Schweinfurt vs Erzgebirge Aue: match statistics

Erzgebirge Aue shows a clear form advantage: the visitors have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches and recorded 2 wins and 3 draws (1.8 points per match), while Schweinfurt have scored only 6 goals and have 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss (0.8 points per match). Over the season Aue have a record of 47 scored and 68 conceded versus Schweinfurt’s 36 scored and 83 conceded, meaning the visitors have scored 11 more goals and conceded 15 fewer. Home numbers slightly favor the hosts in on-target shots (4.56 vs 4.06) and Schweinfurt have a higher average xG (1.44 vs 1.35), but the hosts more often finish matches goalless — 28% of home games vs 17% of Aue’s away matches. Both teams concede frequently (average 1.83 for Schweinfurt at home and 2.00 for Aue away) and the clean sheet rate is only 11% for each side, suggesting an open game with goals. Considering the visitors’ superior form and better goal differential, I give Erzgebirge Aue the better chance of winning.

The BTTS (Both Teams To Score) scenario is more likely, as Erzgebirge Aue posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 78% versus Schweinfurt's 53%, while the league itself records 64% of matches with BTTS. Both sides concede frequently: Schweinfurt concedes 1.68 goals per game on average, Aue 2.00 goals per game, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends. In attack, xG is 1.51 for Schweinfurt and 1.35 for Aue; on-target shots average 4.47 and 4.06, and total shots 12.47 and 11.11 respectively, indicating both teams create chances. The last-5 trend supports this: Schweinfurt had BTTS in 80% of their last 5, Aue in 60%, with average goals scored 1.2 and 2.2 and average goals conceded 1.4 and 1.4. Considering Aue's high seasonal BTTS (78%), the league's high BTTS rate (64%), Aue's low clean sheets (11%) and both teams’ chance creation, I assess BTTS probability at 78% (Yes) and 22% (No).

Both teams generate significant xG: Schweinfurt has an attacking xG of 1.51 and scores 1.32 goals per game on average, Aue has an attacking xG of 1.35 and scores 1.22; both defenses concede many chances (Schweinfurt xG against 1.75 and 1.68 goals conceded on average, Aue xG against 1.70 and 2.00 conceded). The combined expected goals from attacking xG and opponent defensive xG are about 1.61 for Schweinfurt and 1.55 for Aue, totaling ~3.16 goals, which is effectively in line with the league average of 3.17. Seasonal indicators confirm an offensive profile: Over 1.5 occurred in 79% of Schweinfurt’s matches and 78% of Aue’s, Over 2.5 in 63% and 67%, and Over 3.5 in 42% and 44% of games; additionally BTTS stands at 53% and 78%. In the last 5 matches Schweinfurt scored 6 goals (1.2 avg), Aue 11 goals (2.2 avg), and both teams conceded 7 goals in that period, which supports a tendency toward open games. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated probability ~86%), with moderate support for Over 2.5 (~66%), so I recommend backing the over at the 1.5 line.

The most likely outcome is a draw at Half-Time and a draw Full-Time (X/X — 30%), because both teams have low average first-half goals: Schweinfurt 0.53 and Erzgebirge Aue 0.50, and the home side were level at the break in 47% of matches. Draws are frequent this season: Schweinfurt have 42% draws, Aue 28%, and win rates are low (home wins 21%, away wins 11%), which increases the probability of a split of points after 90 minutes. A strong but secondary scenario is X/1 (20%) — the hosts have higher xG (1.51 vs 1.35) and stronger second halves (ppg_2hg_home 1.42 versus Aue’s 1.11), and Schweinfurt scored 8 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 4 for Aue, suggesting an ability to secure a victory after the break. At the same time Aue have a high BTTS rate (78%) and score in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals), and both teams have similar xG conceded (1.75 vs 1.70), which maintains a significant share for scenarios with goals from both sides (e.g. 1/X 14% and X/2 11%).