Schweinfurt vs Hansa Rostock: match statistics

The favorite is Hansa Rostock (5th) against Schweinfurt (20th); Hansa has 16 wins this season, Schweinfurt only 5. In attack Hansa scored 62 goals this season and 15 in the last 5 matches, while Schweinfurt has 31 goals this season and 7 in the last 5; goals per game average is 1.75 for Hansa away versus 1.31 for Schweinfurt at home. Defensively the gap is significant: Schweinfurt concedes 2.00 goals per game at home and 77 goals overall this season, while Hansa concedes only 0.81 away and 37 overall; Hansa has 50% clean sheets on the road versus 6% for the hosts at home. Quality-of-chance analysis shows xG 1.52 for Hansa away versus 1.45 for Schweinfurt at home, with xG against 1.34 vs 1.93, and Hansa also has better shot conversion (14% vs 11%). The visitors have won 4 of their last 5 and average 2.4 points per game in that period; the hosts have 2 wins and 1.4 points, therefore I forecast a Hansa win with 70% probability, draw 20% and home win 10%.

I assess a 65% probability for BTTS (both teams to score) and 35% for No BTTS. Schweinfurt posts a seasonal goals-scored average of 2.0, a season BTTS rate of 71% and only 12% matches without scoring; they average 6.12 shots on target and have xG 2.0, indicating consistent chance creation at home. Hansa records seasonally 1.75 goals scored and 0.81 conceded, but in the last 5 matches they scored 15 goals (3.0 avg) and had BTTS in 80% of games, which raises their real chance to score despite a seasonal 50% clean sheet rate. Defensively Schweinfurt conceded 77 goals this season (1.41 per match) and have only 18% clean sheets, so there is a high likelihood Hansa will find a route to goal. Considering the league BTTS rate of 64% and calculated xG (around 1.67 for Schweinfurt and 1.41 for Hansa), the "both teams to score" scenario looks stronger.

Based on xG and offensive averages: the home side has an attacking xG of 2.00 while Hansa’s defensive xG is 1.34, yielding an estimated 1.67 expected goals for Schweinfurt; the visitors have an attacking xG of 1.52 and an opponent xG of 1.30, giving about 1.41 goals for Rostock. Total expected goals ≈3.08, close to the league average of 3.13, so the match should be open in terms of goals. A Poisson distribution for a mean of 3.08 gives the probability of over 1.5 goals at ≈81% (0–1 goals ≈18.8%), over 2.5 ≈59% and over 3.5 ≈37%. Season-long figures support this direction: Schweinfurt has over 1.5 in 88% of matches, Hansa in 63%, and both teams have over 0.5 in 100% and 81% respectively; additionally Hansa scored 15 goals in the last 5 games (3.0 per game). Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is to play the over 1.5 line — highest probability and best risk-reward (81%).

I back 2/2 (Hansa leading at half-time and winning) because the visitors are clearly in better form: in their last five matches Hansa led at the break in 60% of cases (3/5) and won 80% of those games (4/5). Over the past five fixtures Hansa averaged 1.4 first-half goals versus just 0.2 for Schweinfurt (1.4 vs 0.2), and on the season the visitors concede only 0.81 goals per match and keep a clean sheet at half-time in 69% of away games. Schweinfurt do, however, create more chances – xG 2.00 versus Hansa’s 1.52 and 16.82 shots with 6.12 on target against 12.38 and 4.56 – which increases the hosts’ likelihood of scoring, especially late in matches (Schweinfurt have 11 goals in minutes 76–90). Nevertheless, the half-time statistics and recent form favor Hansa taking a lead at the break and maintaining it to full-time, so 2/2 is the strongest signal, with X/2 and X/X the next most probable outcomes.